#MarketTiming – looking for more upside…

After Friday’s upside surge looking for more up to come.

Trouble is all last week every big up move in QQQ was followed day by an equal drop; same for the SPY. It has been an extremely choppy market of late on a daily basis.

But for now, the three main end-of the-day trading triggers — PRICE, BREADTH, VOLATILITY — are all in buy mode so the market timing is a buy until it is not.

TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Positive. Long on Monday open (Day 1).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Positive. Long on Monday open (Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Positive. Long on Monday Open (Day 1).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Negative (Day2).
FEAR AND GREED INDEX: Neutral (49, rising).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 39 Buys, 11 Sells, 10 Overbought, 4 Oversold.

(click on chart for a larger image)
Spy

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#DayTrading – in the pursuit of simplicity…

Best day trading rally ever?

On TQQQ, the 3x-leveraged ETF for the Nasdaq, 15 percent year to date ($15k total trading $100k on each trade), with 75 percent of the trades profitable. No overnight risk.

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DAYTRADE2017-03-10_0846

#MarketTiming – once again the bull runs…

TREND TRADE: Up from open, 1/25, possibly whipsawing.

SWING TRADE: Up from open, 1/20.

DAY/SCALP TRADE: Buying the dips with the trend trade

PRICE TREND: Nasdaq up 1 day, whipsawing.

SETUP:

After giving all the signs of an impending sell down, the market took off again to the upside.  This has happened a lot during the later stage of this bull market.

Each time breadth has turned up (which it did again yesterday), the market has had a run so at this point the past of least resistance is again up.  See how XIV, the leveraged inverse VIX ETF, has performed with the market behind it on the chart below (the green vertical lines marking each new surge like yesterday).

But the signs for a sell down remain, at least for now, so trading here is tricky and a buy and hold strategy downright scary.  Appears the market chop has an upward bias but that is the way it was Tuesday.  Today late may be another matter.

Stocks on my nifty-fifty stock list went from 19 on buy signals to 38 in a day.  Stocks coming off recent sell downs that might produce at least a swing bounce or scalp trade include the banks JPM, C, GS, BAC and a big cap on the list, DIS.

Should be noted I guess that airlines, ALK and HA, on the list remain oversold and could play catch up in the next couple of days if the market continues yesterday’s bounce.

(right click on the chart for a larger view)

trendswing_2016-12-12_0818

#MarketTiming – the rally gets long…in the tooth

TREND TRADE: Long from open, 1/4.

SWING TRADE: Long from open, 1/4.

DAY/SCALP TRADE: Buying the dips…

PRICE TREND: Nasdaq up 6 days.

SETUP:

The rally, which began on the open of 1/4, is now five days old.  It can go higher.  In fact breadth is indicating it will, at least for one more day.

But…

Five days in a row put the Nasdaq on borrowed time.  Trader Vic Sperandeo used to say “if the market doesn’t do what it is expected to do, it will do the opposite twice as much.”  I still expect it to go up more, but I’m also on the alert to the “twice as much.”

On this rally, it has mostly been Nasdaq, Nasdaq and more Nasdaq so far.  TQQQ, the 3x-leveraged ETF I use for that index is up 7.2% in these five days, XIV is up 6.7% while UPRO, keyed to the S&P, is flat as is TNA, keyed to the Russell.

Among the leveraged sector ETFs, LABU (biotechs) is up 32%…32% in five days!

Notable Nasdaq stocks participating in the rally include AAPL up 2.8%, AMGN 4.4%, AMZN 4.8%, TSLA 6.9%, FB up 5.7%; the number-one stock in my nifty-fifty stock list, HIIQ is up 16.2% on this five-day run (one of these days I’m going to have to look that symbol up and see what that company is and what it does).

Anyway this is what market timing is all about.  I’m recording it her for my own amusement, and mine alone, but whenever anyone says it’s impossible to time the market I tell them to go back to school.

On the chart below that last green circle in the upper right indicates this rally may have more to go but again…”the twice as much” if not…

(right click on the chart for a larger view)

trendswing_2016-12-12_0818

 

#MarketTiming – the rally takes off…

TREND TRADE: Long from open, 1/4.

SWING TRADE: Long from open, 1/4.

DAY/SCALP TRADE: Buying the dips…

PRICE TREND: Up 3 days.

SETUP:

As projected, the market moved nicely to the upside from today’s open.

My nifty-fifty stock list has moved from 40 stocks  on sells, 22 oversold, to 40 stocks on buys, 19 overbought, in two days.  Now that is a bounce!  At this point I expect more of the same into Thursday and will tighten stops on the swing trade.

The 3x-leveraged index ETFs mentioned in yesterday’s post were all up from the buys on today’s open — TQQQ up 1.2%, TNA up 3.6%, XIV UP 3.7% and UPRO up 1.1%. The sector ETF were lead by BIB up 5.2%, FAS up 2.4% but SOXL was down .4% and ERX also down 1.1%.

Of the stocks mentioned — GS, DIS, NAV, BAC NVDA- only NAV was loser at down 1.1%.

As for the trend trade, it has now clearly reversed to the upside, and it is a matter of buying dips as the rally moves forward.

For those who pay attention to these things, the Dow could easily take out 20,000 by the end of the week.  But arbitrary levels matter less then getting the general direction of the market right, which is what market timing is all about.

On the chart below, just for fun, is a look at the SPY monthly at-the-money 225 call option on the swing trade from yesterday now up 53%, and the day trade on the same option up 15% from the open today to close.

(right click on the chart for a larger view)

optionsday2017-01-04_1213

 

 

 

 

 

#SwingTrading – up move in motion…

TREND TRADE: Long from open, 11/9.

SWING TRADE: Long from open, 12/27.

DAY/SCALP TRADE: Long, long…

PRICE TREND: Up 2 days.

SETUP:

Market breadth continues to climb, prices continue to rise, more and more stocks register individual buy signals…obviously, the move to the upside, triggered Friday, continued today…

It must be time again to state the market’s second clearest axiom -“the market will go up until it goes down.”  (The clearest axiom, reputed to have been stated by J.P. Morgan himself is “the market will fluctuate.”)

Of the stocks on my nifty-fifty list, 20 gave individual buy signals today, bringing the total to stocks-on-buys to 38 up from 18 Friday.  Too numerous to in total, the stocks include X, KRO, CECO, NUE, BAC, LECO, FORM and FAST.

More notable, all eight of the 3x-leveraged ETFs I follow are on buys — TQQQ, TNA, UPRO, XIV, FAS, BIB, ERX, SOXL.

Let’s call the featured chart below “After Consolidating SPY Tries To Resume Its Rally” because it likely will.

(right click on the chart for a larger view)

trendswing_2016-12-27_0818

 

 

#DayTrading – the simplicity of the market…

TREND TRADE: Long from open, 11/9.

SWING TRADE: Flat from open, 12/22.

DAY/SCALP TRADE: Long bias but short scalp possible..

PRICE TREND: Down 2 days.

SETUP:

Today was down across the board on follow-through from the breadth turn down 12/20.  Assume tomorrow with be more of the same.

Markets go down until they don’t anymore.  Been told that is as dumb a statement as can be made but it is in fact absolutely true and it is the very basis of simplicity so often unrecognized in market movements.  It is that simple, the market is either up or it is down.

Recognizing the simplicity is where the money is made in trading.

Again, aggressive traders might want to play the short side via short ETF’s — SQQQ (featured on the chart below), TZA, UVXY.  In fact note the previous bounce on SQQQ, not a bad scalp for some profits.  Could happen again.  Now.

(right click on the chart for a larger view)

day_trade2_2016-12-07_1311

 

#DayTrading – signals…

TREND TRADE: Long from open, 11/9.

SWING TRADE: Buy from open, 12/14.

DAY/SCALP TRADE: Long bias but short scalp possible..

PRICE TRENDS: Down 1 day.

SETUP:

Failed to post this yesterday due to time conflicts but for the record this is what was.

Although the longer term remains bullish, market breadth gave an ominous short-term warning of a possible dip in the market (which was posted, see below).  As a result there were no day-trading stocks to buy and in case the dip might become a tumble, stops needed tightening on swing and longer-term positions to preserve profits according to one’s own risk tolerance.

Scalps would be easiest on the 3x-leveraged ETFs: SQQQ, TZA, SPXS and for the those addicted to the wild and one-day crazy, UVXY (today’s move featured below).

(right click on the chart for a larger view)

day_trade2_2016-12-07_1311