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#OptionsTrading – with a dazzling 10 days up in the Nasdaq…

Just a side note on options with the Nasdaq up 10 days in a row (chronicled in the posts below) for the fun of it.

I have three signals that are triggered on the end of a trading day for the next mornings open. They are based on price, breadth and volatility. On July 7th all three registered buys. Since then on a swing trade basis, both breadth and volatility have fluctuated but the price signal has remarkably (and relentlessly) stayed the course for these past nine full days from the open of July 10th.

There are only three things that can happen buying options (in this case, calls) – they go your way, they go down with sideways time decay, or they go against you. Two of the three on the long side will lose money. But when they go your way for a long time, like now, like for 10 days in a row, the results can be dazzling.

All of the call options below were purchasable on the open of July 10th at the prices stated and will expire tomorrow:

TSLA in-the-money (ITM) calls opened at 10.65 and today closed at 19.61.

GOOGL ITM calls opened at 16 and closed today at 51.

AAPL ITM calls opened at 1.41 and closed today at 5.43.

FB ITM calls opened at 3.21 and closed today at 14.52.

AMZN ITM calls opened at 15.10 and closed today at 44.57.

NFLX ITM calls opened at 7.05 and closed today 33.20.

A more spectacular 10-day return one could not ask for – I’ll leave the calculation of each percentage gain to anyone who wants to bother.

(A disclaimer: the information provided here is for educational or entertainment purposes only, mostly my own entertainment, and is not to construed as direct investment or trading advice.)

#MarketTiming – Day 4 0f Upswing

The general market moved up again today. Fourth consecutive day up on the Nasdaq. It is the third day of the trade from Monday’s open. A four or more day move is where the money is made in swing trading, particularly with 3x-leveraged ETFs (see table below), or options, or futures.

At the same time, this market is getting wildly overbought. Forty-three of my Nifty-50 stocks are on buys, with 34 overbought. This is a lot.

The Nasdaq composite is more than two standard deviations of an average advance. That puts it on borrowed time for more upside. Needless to say, it can borrow more time. Markets go up until they go down. Simple as that, and this bull market has had an inclination to put on more gains just when one thinks it should stall.

It is time still to let profits run since all principal buy signals remain positive and long-term breadth just turned positive also, making this a market now to buy the dips, any dips.

TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Positive. Long on Monday open (Trade Day 3).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Positive. Long on Monday open (Trade Day 3).
VOLATILITY: Positive. Long on Monday Open (Trade Day 3).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Positive (Day 1).
FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (47, rising back into neutral).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 43 Buys, rising; 34 Overbought, 0 Oversold.

The rally results so far (three full days):

TQQQ up 6.0 percent.
XIV up 5.4 percent.
UPRO up 2.3 percent.
TNA up 2.8 percent.

The net gain for a basket of the above leverage ETF for the three days in the trade is 4.1 percent.

$SPY #Options – been down too long

Following the green…

After dropping hard last Friday and drifting lower through the week, SPY is on a bounce so far today.  Got my Follow-The-Green buy signal at 7 a.m. today (pacific time), and the intraday trend has been up since that time. See chart below (will try to update, trading permitting, during the day).

By the way, those numbers on the lower right of the chart are net gains for 10 contracts (the green number) and 50 contracts (the yellow number).

Must remind this post is for an entertainment purpose only and not to be construed as investment advice, which is why it is intentionally not in real time.

(right click on the chart for a larger view)

calls_2016-09-13_1206

 UPDATED CHART (what a difference an hour makes…)

calls_2016-09-13_1206

UPDATE END OF THE TRADE:

calls_2016-09-13_1206

 

$SPY #OPTIONS – three great days…

Following the red, the green, the red again…

This week’s SPY 214 put up 153 percent on Friday.  Then the SPY 212 call up 63 percent on Monday. And today, so far, the SPY 214 put up another 98 %.  Each of these are charted as day trades (see charts below for, first, the put move, then the call).

Size-wise, imagine if one could trade these swings full pedal to the metal.  But smaller size has been great too.

(right click on PUT chart for a larger view)

puts_2016-09-13_1205

(right click on the CALL chart for a larger view)

calls_2016-09-13_1206

 

 

#Stocks – buy when the market tells you

Following the green…

The late Kennedy Gammage, a wise and folksy market timer, used to say “buy when the market tells you, sell when the stock tells you.”

Well, the market said “buy” today.

So, how does that look on a few notable stocks?

(right click on charts for a larger view)

BID:

spy_green_2016-08-10_0615

GS:

spy_green_2016-08-10_0615

AAPL:

spy_green_2016-08-10_0615

$SPY – trending day in the works?

Following the green…

After coming into the day from Friday’s late-day weakness the market so far today has had a reversal and is trending up, giving buys on UPRO, TQQQ, TNA, XIV, the futures, call options.

(right click on chart for a larger view)

SPY_GREEN_2016-08-10_0615

$SPY – a choppy day…

Following the green…

Up from the open, back down to the open, back up to the highs at the close — so call it a choppy day with an upward bias. Ideal for scalpers but hard to play for everyone else.

Best move came midday into the close with the near week SPY 218 call up 27% on the intraday trend signal.  System took that off at the close in order to move to next week’s options but the market will open tomorrow with the up trend intact.

Not much more to say.  Will look to be long (at least initially) on tomorrow’s open.

(right click on the chart for a larger view)

SPY_GREEN_2016-08-10_0615

 

 

$SPY – the intraday uptrend…

Following the green…

The market reversed to an uptrend intraday apparently in anticipation (hope) there would be neutral to good news from the Fed minutes.

Near week SPY 217 calls up 25% at the moment.

UPDATE ON THE CLOSE:

(right click on the chart for a larger view)

SPY_GREEN_2016-08-10_0615

 

$SPY – updating the intraday trend…

Following the red…

The resumption of intraday downtrend from late Tuesday into the close continued on the open today.

At the moment, the near week in the money 219 put is up 64% on the signal, 39% from today’s open.

UPDATE: the 219 put is now up 87 percent on the signal, 57 percent from today’s open (percentages are shown on the lower right of the chart, green for the trend signal, yellow for the day trade).

UPDATE2:

Appears the midday chop may be beginning, so tightening stops.

(right click on UPDATED chart to view a larger image)

SPY_RED_2016-08-09_0957