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$XIV – up 63% on swing trades YTD…

Haven’t posted here for a while. Out of sheer laziness.

In that time, the market gave a buy for today’s open on all three of my swing trading signals – Price, Breadth, Volatility. As a day trade the primary leveraged ETFs I follow were up modestly — TQQQ up 1.28 percent from the open, XIV up .83 percent, UPRO up .34 percent.

Breadth gave a sell for tomorrow’s open so will take some off the table but the other two signals remain in place.

Over at Traders-Talk.com the question was asked today: “Is anyone doing anything novel with the VIX?” I’m not going to tell exactly what is the novel I’m doing except to say I use the VIX to generate the Volatility swing signal, and I suppose this is as good a time as any, to note that XIV, the 3x-leveraged ETF based on the VIX, going long only is up 63 percent on thirty-eight swing signals year to date (with 65% of the trades profitable).

The Volatility signal is posted here everyday (or sometimes, like today, when I get around to it):

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Buy. Price (Day 2).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Sell. (Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Buy, (Day 2).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Sell (Day 4).
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (63, greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 33 Buys; 13 Overbought, 6 Oversold, 9 new buys today, 1 new sells.

#MarketTiming – dancing but dancing near the door…

By my count this swing is 46 trading days old, was kind of ragged and hard to read in the middle, but the longer-term breadth has been rising and there is no divergence in shorter-term breadth and with price giving another choppy buy signal today it’s likely there is more upside to come.

Still, a lot of big names (see table below) are getting long in the tooth.

This is one of those times when one wants to stay at the dance but dance near the door…and nearer to the door every day.

(TSLA was the wall flower but got asked to dance today – in other words, when the laggards start to run…).

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Positive. Long on tomorrow’s open (Trade Day 0).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Negative. Flat (Day 3).
VOLATILITY: a sell on tomorrow’s open, Flat (Day 1).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Positive (Day 9).
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (72, falling still at greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 23 Buys, falling; 14 Overbought, 4 Oversold, 12 new buys today, 4 new sells.

The swing-trading signals on the leveraged ETFs – TQQQ, XIV, TNA, UPRO – are flat with possible day-trading commencing tomorrow.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

StockTable_2017-07-24_1715.png

$KC – the coffee futures swing trade is short…

…with a breakeven at 135.

For years coffee has been one of the best swing-trading plays, both long and short. Now after a severe draw down that wiped out profits for the year, the swings appear to be back on track. If this continues, it will again be a very profitable year for coffee speculators.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

COFFEE2017-07-13_1436

#SwingTrading – taking profits…

The Nasdaq Composite is up seven days in a row. That is a true testament to the bullishness of this bull market.

My price only trading signal as a result is still positive (will be until it turns down) but seven in a row is rare so a pause in this rally can come any day, any minute. My volatility signal has risen six days in a row before triggering a sell for either today’s close or tomorrow’s open.

With both the short-term breadth and volatility signals on sells now taking some profits would be in order.

Should also be noted that the stock in the nifty-50 list have been rolling over from a high 0f 43 on buy signals four days ago to less than 50 percent on buys today at 21.

However, long-term breadth remains positive so any weakness here is not a short so much as a dip to buy. Often, with a strong 7-day run like this, dips are for only one day before the advance resumes.

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Positive. Long on last Monday’s open (Day 7).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Negative. Flat on today’s close or tomorrow’s open (Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Negative on today’s close (Swing Trade Day 7).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Positive (Day 4).
FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (67, rising into the greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 21 Buys, falling; 17 Overbought,4 Oversold, 5 buys today, 14 sells.

The rally results so far (seven full days):

TQQQ up 9.3 percent.
XIV up 11.3 percent.
UPRO up 4.0 percent.
TNA up 4.2 percent.

The net gain for a basket of the above leveraged ETFs for the trade is 7.2 percent.

(Disclaimer: This blog entry and all others here are for entertainment purposes only and should not be construed as direct investment advice.)

CNN Money’s Fear and Greed Index:

(click on chart for a larger view)

fear_and_greed2017-07-17_1525

#MarketTiming – 5 consecutive days up…

The market moved higher again today. This is the fifth day up in a row, and the fourth day of the swing trade from Monday’s open.

A splendid week for the bulls.

Of the three main trade signals — Price, Breadth and Volatility — two remain on buys while short-term breadth turned down today. That’s a signal for swing traders to take some profits – a third off, or more. Breadth, especially after a strong run of five days and especially with significant profits on the table, is often (not always) the sign that an advance has lost its momentum.

In addition, my nifty-50 stock list moved from 43 stocks on buys yesterday to 33 on buys today as 11 of the 34 oversold stocks yesterday clicked down to 23 today.

In other words it will be no surprise if the market dips tomorrow.

This is will not be a time, however, to short but instead an opportunity to buy a dip for more to come going forward (until further notice).

TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Positive. Long on Monday open (Trade Day 4).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Negative. A sell for Friday’s open (Trade Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Positive. Long on Monday Open (Trade Day 4).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Positive (Day 2).
FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (54, rising in neutral).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 33 Buys, rising; 23 Overbought, 0 Oversold, no buys today, 11 sells.

The rally results so far (four full days):

TQQQ up 6.7 percent.
XIV up 6.5 percent.
UPRO up 3.0 percent.
TNA up 2.7 percent.

The net gain for a basket of the above leveraged ETFs for the trade is 4.7 percent.

In the midst of a four day trade it is probably worth taking a look at 10 familiar stocks on this swing:

(click on chart for a larger view)

10_stocks_2017-07-13_1418

#MarketTiming – Day 4 0f Upswing

The general market moved up again today. Fourth consecutive day up on the Nasdaq. It is the third day of the trade from Monday’s open. A four or more day move is where the money is made in swing trading, particularly with 3x-leveraged ETFs (see table below), or options, or futures.

At the same time, this market is getting wildly overbought. Forty-three of my Nifty-50 stocks are on buys, with 34 overbought. This is a lot.

The Nasdaq composite is more than two standard deviations of an average advance. That puts it on borrowed time for more upside. Needless to say, it can borrow more time. Markets go up until they go down. Simple as that, and this bull market has had an inclination to put on more gains just when one thinks it should stall.

It is time still to let profits run since all principal buy signals remain positive and long-term breadth just turned positive also, making this a market now to buy the dips, any dips.

TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Positive. Long on Monday open (Trade Day 3).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Positive. Long on Monday open (Trade Day 3).
VOLATILITY: Positive. Long on Monday Open (Trade Day 3).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Positive (Day 1).
FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (47, rising back into neutral).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 43 Buys, rising; 34 Overbought, 0 Oversold.

The rally results so far (three full days):

TQQQ up 6.0 percent.
XIV up 5.4 percent.
UPRO up 2.3 percent.
TNA up 2.8 percent.

The net gain for a basket of the above leverage ETF for the three days in the trade is 4.1 percent.

$KC #CoffeeFutures – maybe the best swing trade ever…

Haven’t researched the results versus everything else in the world but $21k per contract on the up and downs, the longs and shorts, in the past 13 months has been fairly steady and rather astounding.

Currently long.

Update: Short from 2/23, 149.95.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

coffee2017-02-16_1700