#BullMarket – so many buy signals…

…it is almost scary.

But it is what it is.  I guess the Fed came to save the day…with higher interest rates no less.

With a low above a low on the NYMO after five weeks of highs below highs, it appears bears have one more day (tomorrow) to make their presence felt but after that, if the NYSI up, it will be rocket time again. In other words, new highs across the board someday soon (tomorrow, Friday, next week) and probably then some more…

Also, a nice little divergence there on my nifty-50 stock list from 42 sells in February to 38 four days ago (there are 39 on buys now).  Last time had a similar divergence was at the bottom in November.

(right click on chart for a larger view)

MAIN

#SwingTrading – up move in motion…

TREND TRADE: Long from open, 11/9.

SWING TRADE: Long from open, 12/27.

DAY/SCALP TRADE: Long, long…

PRICE TREND: Up 2 days.

SETUP:

Market breadth continues to climb, prices continue to rise, more and more stocks register individual buy signals…obviously, the move to the upside, triggered Friday, continued today…

It must be time again to state the market’s second clearest axiom -“the market will go up until it goes down.”  (The clearest axiom, reputed to have been stated by J.P. Morgan himself is “the market will fluctuate.”)

Of the stocks on my nifty-fifty list, 20 gave individual buy signals today, bringing the total to stocks-on-buys to 38 up from 18 Friday.  Too numerous to in total, the stocks include X, KRO, CECO, NUE, BAC, LECO, FORM and FAST.

More notable, all eight of the 3x-leveraged ETFs I follow are on buys — TQQQ, TNA, UPRO, XIV, FAS, BIB, ERX, SOXL.

Let’s call the featured chart below “After Consolidating SPY Tries To Resume Its Rally” because it likely will.

(right click on the chart for a larger view)

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#DayTrading – the simplicity of the market…

TREND TRADE: Long from open, 11/9.

SWING TRADE: Flat from open, 12/22.

DAY/SCALP TRADE: Long bias but short scalp possible..

PRICE TREND: Down 2 days.

SETUP:

Today was down across the board on follow-through from the breadth turn down 12/20.  Assume tomorrow with be more of the same.

Markets go down until they don’t anymore.  Been told that is as dumb a statement as can be made but it is in fact absolutely true and it is the very basis of simplicity so often unrecognized in market movements.  It is that simple, the market is either up or it is down.

Recognizing the simplicity is where the money is made in trading.

Again, aggressive traders might want to play the short side via short ETF’s — SQQQ (featured on the chart below), TZA, UVXY.  In fact note the previous bounce on SQQQ, not a bad scalp for some profits.  Could happen again.  Now.

(right click on the chart for a larger view)

day_trade2_2016-12-07_1311

 

#DayTrading – signals…

TREND TRADE: Long from open, 11/9.

SWING TRADE: Buy from open, 12/14.

DAY/SCALP TRADE: Long bias but short scalp possible..

PRICE TRENDS: Down 1 day.

SETUP:

Failed to post this yesterday due to time conflicts but for the record this is what was.

Although the longer term remains bullish, market breadth gave an ominous short-term warning of a possible dip in the market (which was posted, see below).  As a result there were no day-trading stocks to buy and in case the dip might become a tumble, stops needed tightening on swing and longer-term positions to preserve profits according to one’s own risk tolerance.

Scalps would be easiest on the 3x-leveraged ETFs: SQQQ, TZA, SPXS and for the those addicted to the wild and one-day crazy, UVXY (today’s move featured below).

(right click on the chart for a larger view)

day_trade2_2016-12-07_1311

 

#MarketTiming – early warning signs…

One of the great things about market breadth is that over and over again it warns when a rally is weakening.  It usually takes more than one warning before a pause becomes a fall but…

Actually, it usually it takes three and we are at two early warnings now.

See the red circles on the chart below, both past and present.  And note how often they are the precursors for sell-offs to come. Sometimes this trading and investing is simpler than most analysts and Wall-Street players would have to common man believe.  But one must take heed.

Not saying this rally is over.  In fact, it is just the kind of rally (like the Brexit rally last summer) that can go on confounding bears and confounding indicators as it rides waves of too easy money, a seasonal bullishness, and like all bull markets the tendency to go up until it stops going up..

But the warnings are here now and beginning to repeat so this is becoming a time to take some profits or to tighten stop-loss points to make sure not too much is lost when a serious tumble finally takes hold.

(click on the chart for larger view)

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#DayTrading #Stocks – today’s net…

Despite the market weakness across the board today, and a turn down in short-term market breadth, stocks that signaled individual buys for today’s open finished the today’s day-trade with four winners and four losers, essentially flat (up .15%) as a group.

day_trade2_2016-12-07_1311

The leader (above) was HIIQ up 6.18 from today’s open, and NUE , featured with a chart in yesterday’s tweet, (below) managed a small gain (.37%).

Mirror, mirror, what’s the fairest rally?

This is a follow-up to the entry below entitled “To Brexit Or To Exit”.

It was suggested the current rally would continue to mirror the immediate post-Brexit, rally as it has been doing week-by-week since the election.  That continued today as the market put another spike up right on time (see the bars in the red ovals on the right and the left).

If the mirroring is to continue the market should put in two more up days this week before beginning a long chop-chop, likely for the rest of the year.

And it was suggested the rally would likely resume today into the end the week.  That is still likely unless the Fed kills it with news tomorrow.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

it_rhymes3

#Stocks – to Brexit or to Exit?

I don’t quite know what to say about what’s going on this chart and in the market.

Except that, remarkably,  it appears we’re in a nearly perfect mirror image of the Brexit rally from last July.  Rally in the first week (the light green shading on the left), a one-day pause, another upside follow-through the second week including two upthrust bars in the third week, then chop for a week or so, and finally another multiple-day run up in the fifth week.  Repeat that exactly week by week in the light green shading on the left and we are at now.

So will we have those three up days in the light red oval on the left to fill out the light red oval on the right and then chop-hop our way through the end of the year to complete this “Repeat/Rhyme”?  Or are we on the verge of the whole thing going to slime?

Probably a lot could depend on the Fed, particularly the market’s reaction to the Fed Wednesday.

My guess…We go on tomorrow or the next day, and up into the end of the week…

(click on the chart for a larger view)

it_rhymes3

 

#DayTrading #Stocks – buy signals for Thursday open…

As the market breadth continues to climb, stocks on my nifty-fifty list that gave buy signals today for Thursday’s open are BBL, NAV, SKYW, BGFV, YRD, FNSR, MU.

Again, these are intended in my mind to be day trades to be opened on the open and closed on the close and all are for entertainment purposes only and not to be construed as market advice.

A cautionary note:  the general market indexes are up 4 days in a row and 42 of the stocks on my nifty-fifty list are on buys (that’s a lot and often leads to a pullback in the general market within a day or two) and given today looked very much like a bear-capitulation day “sideways to down” can be expected at any moment.

If sideways or up, these particular stocks will likely run for at least a day.  If down…not so good since most stocks move with the market.

 

 

#Stocks – if one wants to bottom fish…

The sector to bottom fish for the long term isn’t coal, isn’t oil, isn’t fossil fuel in general, it is solar and other renewables.

No matter how much the Trump administration is going to want to pay off his blow-hard coal supporters this is still an industry with one foot in the grave and the other slipping in its own dust.

I can hear some coal boys braying but, but, but BTU (Peabody Energy, the “biggest coal company in the world”) was up 22% today to $13. Yeah.  And it may go higher short term but there is a 15-to-1 reverse split in there so it’s not out of penny stock territory and Mr. Peabody biggest-coal-company-in-the-world is also in bankruptcy.  And a lot of these last of the coal stocks are up a lot hoping for Trump but the future is the future and they don’t have much of one with coal plants still shutting down domestically and internationally the rest of the world going on with the Paris climate-change accord no matter what the U.S. does.

Coal, once a necessary evil, remains an evil investment in the death of the planet.

So here we are once again on the cusp of tomorrow and beyond.

There will be volatility but if one can stand it, there will be rewards in renewable energy in the fullness of time. And today’s pop in the sector might be the start of something big given that’s it come on bad news for the sector in general.

(right click on the charts for a larger view)

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