#OptionsTrading – with a dazzling 10 days up in the Nasdaq…

Just a side note on options with the Nasdaq up 10 days in a row (chronicled in the posts below) for the fun of it.

I have three signals that are triggered on the end of a trading day for the next mornings open. They are based on price, breadth and volatility. On July 7th all three registered buys. Since then on a swing trade basis, both breadth and volatility have fluctuated but the price signal has remarkably (and relentlessly) stayed the course for these past nine full days from the open of July 10th.

There are only three things that can happen buying options (in this case, calls) – they go your way, they go down with sideways time decay, or they go against you. Two of the three on the long side will lose money. But when they go your way for a long time, like now, like for 10 days in a row, the results can be dazzling.

All of the call options below were purchasable on the open of July 10th at the prices stated and will expire tomorrow:

TSLA in-the-money (ITM) calls opened at 10.65 and today closed at 19.61.

GOOGL ITM calls opened at 16 and closed today at 51.

AAPL ITM calls opened at 1.41 and closed today at 5.43.

FB ITM calls opened at 3.21 and closed today at 14.52.

AMZN ITM calls opened at 15.10 and closed today at 44.57.

NFLX ITM calls opened at 7.05 and closed today 33.20.

A more spectacular 10-day return one could not ask for – I’ll leave the calculation of each percentage gain to anyone who wants to bother.

(A disclaimer: the information provided here is for educational or entertainment purposes only, mostly my own entertainment, and is not to construed as direct investment or trading advice.)

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#MarketTiming – the rally takes off…

TREND TRADE: Long from open, 1/4.

SWING TRADE: Long from open, 1/4.

DAY/SCALP TRADE: Buying the dips…

PRICE TREND: Up 3 days.

SETUP:

As projected, the market moved nicely to the upside from today’s open.

My nifty-fifty stock list has moved from 40 stocks  on sells, 22 oversold, to 40 stocks on buys, 19 overbought, in two days.  Now that is a bounce!  At this point I expect more of the same into Thursday and will tighten stops on the swing trade.

The 3x-leveraged index ETFs mentioned in yesterday’s post were all up from the buys on today’s open — TQQQ up 1.2%, TNA up 3.6%, XIV UP 3.7% and UPRO up 1.1%. The sector ETF were lead by BIB up 5.2%, FAS up 2.4% but SOXL was down .4% and ERX also down 1.1%.

Of the stocks mentioned — GS, DIS, NAV, BAC NVDA- only NAV was loser at down 1.1%.

As for the trend trade, it has now clearly reversed to the upside, and it is a matter of buying dips as the rally moves forward.

For those who pay attention to these things, the Dow could easily take out 20,000 by the end of the week.  But arbitrary levels matter less then getting the general direction of the market right, which is what market timing is all about.

On the chart below, just for fun, is a look at the SPY monthly at-the-money 225 call option on the swing trade from yesterday now up 53%, and the day trade on the same option up 15% from the open today to close.

(right click on the chart for a larger view)

optionsday2017-01-04_1213

 

 

 

 

 

$SPY #Options – been down too long

Following the green…

After dropping hard last Friday and drifting lower through the week, SPY is on a bounce so far today.  Got my Follow-The-Green buy signal at 7 a.m. today (pacific time), and the intraday trend has been up since that time. See chart below (will try to update, trading permitting, during the day).

By the way, those numbers on the lower right of the chart are net gains for 10 contracts (the green number) and 50 contracts (the yellow number).

Must remind this post is for an entertainment purpose only and not to be construed as investment advice, which is why it is intentionally not in real time.

(right click on the chart for a larger view)

calls_2016-09-13_1206

 UPDATED CHART (what a difference an hour makes…)

calls_2016-09-13_1206

UPDATE END OF THE TRADE:

calls_2016-09-13_1206

 

$SPY #OPTIONS – three great days…

Following the red, the green, the red again…

This week’s SPY 214 put up 153 percent on Friday.  Then the SPY 212 call up 63 percent on Monday. And today, so far, the SPY 214 put up another 98 %.  Each of these are charted as day trades (see charts below for, first, the put move, then the call).

Size-wise, imagine if one could trade these swings full pedal to the metal.  But smaller size has been great too.

(right click on PUT chart for a larger view)

puts_2016-09-13_1205

(right click on the CALL chart for a larger view)

calls_2016-09-13_1206

 

 

$SPY – a choppy day…

Following the green…

Up from the open, back down to the open, back up to the highs at the close — so call it a choppy day with an upward bias. Ideal for scalpers but hard to play for everyone else.

Best move came midday into the close with the near week SPY 218 call up 27% on the intraday trend signal.  System took that off at the close in order to move to next week’s options but the market will open tomorrow with the up trend intact.

Not much more to say.  Will look to be long (at least initially) on tomorrow’s open.

(right click on the chart for a larger view)

SPY_GREEN_2016-08-10_0615

 

 

$SPY – the intraday uptrend…

Following the green…

The market reversed to an uptrend intraday apparently in anticipation (hope) there would be neutral to good news from the Fed minutes.

Near week SPY 217 calls up 25% at the moment.

UPDATE ON THE CLOSE:

(right click on the chart for a larger view)

SPY_GREEN_2016-08-10_0615

 

$SPY – updating the intraday trend…

Following the red…

The resumption of intraday downtrend from late Tuesday into the close continued on the open today.

At the moment, the near week in the money 219 put is up 64% on the signal, 39% from today’s open.

UPDATE: the 219 put is now up 87 percent on the signal, 57 percent from today’s open (percentages are shown on the lower right of the chart, green for the trend signal, yellow for the day trade).

UPDATE2:

Appears the midday chop may be beginning, so tightening stops.

(right click on UPDATED chart to view a larger image)

SPY_RED_2016-08-09_0957

 

$SPY – sideways chop ends the downtrend

Following the red…

The midday sluggish summer trading cancels out yesterday’s intraday downtrend leading possibly to a trend reversal (long with a tight stop).

Near week in the money 219 put closed for 60% on the trend signal, 5% from today’s open.

The downtrend resumed into the close. Update on Twitter: :

(right click on UPDATED chart for a larger view)

SPY_RED_2016-08-09_0957