#MarketTiming – once again the bull runs…

TREND TRADE: Up from open, 1/25, possibly whipsawing.

SWING TRADE: Up from open, 1/20.

DAY/SCALP TRADE: Buying the dips with the trend trade

PRICE TREND: Nasdaq up 1 day, whipsawing.

SETUP:

After giving all the signs of an impending sell down, the market took off again to the upside.  This has happened a lot during the later stage of this bull market.

Each time breadth has turned up (which it did again yesterday), the market has had a run so at this point the past of least resistance is again up.  See how XIV, the leveraged inverse VIX ETF, has performed with the market behind it on the chart below (the green vertical lines marking each new surge like yesterday).

But the signs for a sell down remain, at least for now, so trading here is tricky and a buy and hold strategy downright scary.  Appears the market chop has an upward bias but that is the way it was Tuesday.  Today late may be another matter.

Stocks on my nifty-fifty stock list went from 19 on buy signals to 38 in a day.  Stocks coming off recent sell downs that might produce at least a swing bounce or scalp trade include the banks JPM, C, GS, BAC and a big cap on the list, DIS.

Should be noted I guess that airlines, ALK and HA, on the list remain oversold and could play catch up in the next couple of days if the market continues yesterday’s bounce.

(right click on the chart for a larger view)

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$TSLA and market timing…(updated)

Not confirmed yet but if the market stays down it appears after 45 days of rally, the market may begin to take a tumble today.  And if today’s downside trigger follows through, there could be a full-blown correction in the making.

A couple of ifs in there but if they hold, it will be time to look around for stocks to sell if one currently holds them, or to short if one is an aggressive trader.

Case in point – TSLA.

TSLA, like to most stocks, tends to run with the market’s general direction, both up and down.

On the up, Tesla has had a great in run during this rally, roughly from 191 to (at the moment) 227, or 18.5% or so.  A profit well worth locking in since the stock can be volatile.

Now for the down.  Looking at the chart below, it appears the market may be turning negative (the green and red dots the middle of the chart) and so is Tesla’s stock.  When the market and the stock are in sync like this one needs to go with the market until the stock says otherwise.

In short, TSLA is a short.  That is if all the ifs above remain true at the end of this day.

UPDATE:

Market breadth did not stay negative on yesterday’s close (note the green dot instead of red on the indicator in the middle of the second chart below) so the short signal anticipated here never triggered and instead TSLA, on news (its charging station pricing) and modestly bullish day in the Nasdaq to back it up, had a nice rise today, 3.3% from today’s open. So it goes sometimes.

(right click on the chart for a larger view)

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(right click on UPDATED chart for a larger view)

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#DayTrading #Stocks — winners, winners again

UPDATE: 12/9/16

DGI, the one stock giving a buy signal for a day trade today finished down .62%, a small loss and a small price to pay for very fine week.  Although the stock indexes were up again – 6 days in a row – there were more signs of a pullback, or at least a pause, in the rally – only 14 of the 50 stocks on my nifty-fifty stock list were up on the day.

The day-trading stocks for today again scored with the market’s continued rally but a stall may be coming Friday.

Today’s basket of stocks from my nifty-fifty list — BBL, NAV, SKYW, BGFV, YRD, MU and FNSR (the leader highlighted on the chart below) — had five winners and one loser for a net gain of 1.8% for the day.  That won/loss on stock day trades for the week stays just above 82%.

However, there is a clue to tomorrow’s possible action since there is only one stock – DGI – on the list giving a buy for tomorrow’s open.  Forty-one of the fifty stocks on my list are on buys for the current market upswing (down from 42 yesterday).  Often when one runs out of new stocks to buy the swing is ready to stall, and maybe fall.  That comes with market indexes up 5 days in a row so a pause here will not be surprising.

Been a very good week for the bulls.

(Right click on the charts for a larger view)

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#DayTrading #Stocks – buy signals for Thursday open…

As the market breadth continues to climb, stocks on my nifty-fifty list that gave buy signals today for Thursday’s open are BBL, NAV, SKYW, BGFV, YRD, FNSR, MU.

Again, these are intended in my mind to be day trades to be opened on the open and closed on the close and all are for entertainment purposes only and not to be construed as market advice.

A cautionary note:  the general market indexes are up 4 days in a row and 42 of the stocks on my nifty-fifty list are on buys (that’s a lot and often leads to a pullback in the general market within a day or two) and given today looked very much like a bear-capitulation day “sideways to down” can be expected at any moment.

If sideways or up, these particular stocks will likely run for at least a day.  If down…not so good since most stocks move with the market.

 

 

#DayTradingStocks – all winners

This is an update for yesterday’s post below in which these stocks were suggested as buys on today’s open and sells on today’s close, day trades.

The net gain on the basket was 2.04 percent, led by GPS up 4.8% lagged by HIIQ flat.  Nice to have five out of six winners and actually no loser.

(click on the picture for a larger view)

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#DayTrading stocks – 82% winners this week so far…

Market breadth turned up on Friday (11/2) giving a buy signal on the major indexes and since the vast majority of stocks move with the market direction, Friday’s buy signal cleared the way for stocks to move higher.

Conveniently for the start of the week, the time to initiate buys was the open of Monday. If we look back there were four stocks in my nifty-fifty stock list that gave individual buys for Monday’s open — SCHN, CECO, TBPH and RIO.

The idea was to buy on the open and sell on the close, a pure day trade on each stock. The value of this kind of trading allows the trader to leverage with margin and retain buying power leverage for each day.

Monday SCHN, from open to close, netted 1.8%, CECO lost 1.2%, TBPH gained 1.7%, and RIO gained .4% for a net of .47%, exclusive of slippage and commission for the basket. While that was not a great gain (leveraged it would have been at least twice as much), it was a profit, and it should be noted that was the first day of the turn to the upside for the market.

And as Monday’s market rally got moving, it generated 13 individual stock buy signals in the nifty-fifty stock list. Again it was buy on Tuesday’s open (today’s open) and sell on today’s close.

The results for today’s 13 day trades in stocks — FCX up 1.1%, ACM up 2.8%, NVDA up 1.2%, BBL up 1.5%, TPC up 3.9%, DGI down 1%, NAV up .8%, BHP up 2.2%, IRBT up 1%, FPRX down .01%, ADSK up 7% (highlighted on the chart below), ACAS up .4%, and TWI up .2%.  An un-leveraged net across the basket of 1.6%.

Stocks from my list giving buy signals for tomorrow’s open  are HIIQ, MSCC, GPS, IGT, UAL, and BRKS.  So we’ll see how those go. (These are presented here for entertainment only and are not be construed as market advice.)

(right click on the chart for a larger view)

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$GWPH – still the best marijuana stock

After four more states ended marijuana prohibition in Tuesday’s election with California (the biggie), Massachusetts, Maine and Nevada legalizing its use, there is increased interest in the stocks in the sector.

Many are small and speculative almost beyond belief. No doubt several will someday be big winners but the for now leader in the sector is GWPH.

Here is a description of the company (borrowing from Yahoo finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GWPH/profile?p=GWPH):

GW Pharmaceuticals plc, a biopharmaceutical company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in discovering, developing, and commercializing cannabinoid prescription medicines. It operates through three segments: Commercial, Sativex Research and Development, and Pipeline Research and Development. The company primarily offers Sativex, an oromucosal spray for the treatment of spasticity due to multiple sclerosis. It also focuses on the Phase III clinical development program of Sativex for use in the treatment of cancer pain; and Phase 2 trials in other indications, such as neuropathic pain. In addition, the company’s product pipeline includes Epidiolex, a treatment for Dravet syndrome and Lennox-Gastaut syndrome, as well as other product candidates in Phase 1 and 2 clinical development for the treatment of glioma, adult epilepsy, type-2 diabetes, and schizophrenia. It operates in the United Kingdom, Europe, the United States, Canada, and Asia. GW Pharmaceuticals plc was founded in 1998 and is based in Cambridge, the United Kingdom.

And technically speaking, the stock is strong.  Swing traders may want to just follow the blue 5-day exponential average to move in and out to reduce risk.

(right click on the chart for a larger view)

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#Great8Stocks- Top stocks in a Nifty50StockList

These eight stocks rose to the top of my nifty-50 stock list as the market began the current rally.

Into to the recent low the SPX declined 9 days in a row which is called stretching the rubber band too far.  No wonder there was such big blast to the upside yesterday.

With the market down 8 days in a row, breadth turned up on 11/3 giving a buy signal for the open of 11/4 (as has been said before “buy when the market tells you, sell when the stock tells you”).  From the open of 11/4 to today’s close (11/8): CLCD is up 1%; CWEI, UP 15.4%, FNSR, UP 3.4%; NFLX, UP 1.8%, NTES UP 3.5%, TBPH UP 6.4%, TWI UP 14.1%, and XRS UP 5%. Deeply oversold leads to wildly overbought in a hurry sometimes.

I think the market will have one more downside swing (for whatever reason — Trump, initial profit taking, too much up too soon) but if that swing does not rip out the recent low, we will likely be in the Santa Claus rally.

The stocks below are in my personal trading journal (not a recommendation for anyone else), with appropriate stops of course.

(right click to see a larger image)

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Watching $BID for a market top

Sotheby’s Holding (BID) has so often been a market bellwether.

And at tops at that!  A rare thing in the world of calling market direction. Bottoms are easier to see and sometimes obvious but tops…”calling” tops has killed many a market prognosticator and killed many a bear.

So let me say right off I’m not calling a top here.  Just trying to pay attention…

And when BID quits rallying and/or diverges with general market, it is time to pay attention.  BID was down a bit on its monthly chart in September.  That is a lower high for the stock while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq drifted higher.

What’s it mean?  Maybe nothing.  Yet.  But take a look at the chart action showing BID with the SPX on the chart below in 2000 and 2007.  One might say, as BID goes so goes everything else.

And this time, so far, BID has not even crawled up to the top of its long-term price range, which is rather ominous going forward.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

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#AirlineStocks are flying…

Following the green…

This makes no fundamental sense to me – the price of oil is up, the summer travel season is over and these are AIRLINES! — but the entire sector is lifting off .

At the moment UAL is up 5%, AAL up 5.6%, DAL up 5.1%, and ALGT a WTF 8.4%.

And the charts look spectacular.  Each coming out of high flat bases (see UAL below).

Maybe you can tell this is not my favorite sector.  I’ve always found it as uncomfortable as the middle seat in the last row in coach. But a rally is a rally and it appears this could a leading sector if we are now to have a weeks-long drive higher in the market.

(right click on image for a larger view)

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