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$UVXY – big swing but watch out this week…

Got the UVXY swing for 50-plus percent off the 11 consecutive days down.

See the July 23rd post below: “UVXY – what a week this could be…”

Note the red dots on the UVXY chart below and the reversal on the VIX Friday.

Likely some upside to continue from Friday’s bounce into this week before any retest of this last week’s decline.

(click on chart for a larger view)

uvxy-vix2017-08-13_1647

$XIV – up 63% on swing trades YTD…

Haven’t posted here for a while. Out of sheer laziness.

In that time, the market gave a buy for today’s open on all three of my swing trading signals – Price, Breadth, Volatility. As a day trade the primary leveraged ETFs I follow were up modestly — TQQQ up 1.28 percent from the open, XIV up .83 percent, UPRO up .34 percent.

Breadth gave a sell for tomorrow’s open so will take some off the table but the other two signals remain in place.

Over at Traders-Talk.com the question was asked today: “Is anyone doing anything novel with the VIX?” I’m not going to tell exactly what is the novel I’m doing except to say I use the VIX to generate the Volatility swing signal, and I suppose this is as good a time as any, to note that XIV, the 3x-leveraged ETF based on the VIX, going long only is up 63 percent on thirty-eight swing signals year to date (with 65% of the trades profitable).

The Volatility signal is posted here everyday (or sometimes, like today, when I get around to it):

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Buy. Price (Day 2).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Sell. (Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Buy, (Day 2).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Sell (Day 4).
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (63, greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 33 Buys; 13 Overbought, 6 Oversold, 9 new buys today, 1 new sells.

$UVXY – What a week this could be!

The most compelling thing I can say about the relentless rally going on for the past 11 days is it’s always hard to call a pause, let alone at top, in a bull market.

That said, the sometimes wild and crazy 3x-leveraged VIX ETF, UVXY, has declined 11 days in a row. What dose that matter? Doesn’t UVXY go down all the time? Pretty much, especially for the past five years. But this many days? Well…in the past five years UVXY has gone down 11 consecutive days only once before.

It has not gone down 12.

After 11 days down last time, it bounced 54% in the following 5 days. What a week this could be for the bears!

In the meantime, two of three of my end-of-the-day signals are on sells and flat. The third signal is volatility, still on a buy but after these 11 days stretched so thin it could snap any day, and minute…explosively.


SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Positive. Long (Trade Day 10).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Negative. Flat (Day 2).
VOLATILITY: Positive, Long (Day 3).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Positive (Day 8).
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (73, falling still at greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 14 Buys, falling; 7 Overbought, 5 Oversold, 0 new buys today, 13 new sells.

The rally results so far (10 full days from the open of 7/10):

TQQQ up 13.7 percent.
XIV up 15.8 percent.
UPRO up 5.6 percent.
TNA up 5.1 percent.

Three of the ETFs backed off a bit Friday, but the advance in XIV managed to move the net gain up from 10.2 percent to 10.4 percent as marked by the Price buy signal on the open of 7/10).

#MarketTiming – 5 consecutive days up…

The market moved higher again today. This is the fifth day up in a row, and the fourth day of the swing trade from Monday’s open.

A splendid week for the bulls.

Of the three main trade signals — Price, Breadth and Volatility — two remain on buys while short-term breadth turned down today. That’s a signal for swing traders to take some profits – a third off, or more. Breadth, especially after a strong run of five days and especially with significant profits on the table, is often (not always) the sign that an advance has lost its momentum.

In addition, my nifty-50 stock list moved from 43 stocks on buys yesterday to 33 on buys today as 11 of the 34 oversold stocks yesterday clicked down to 23 today.

In other words it will be no surprise if the market dips tomorrow.

This is will not be a time, however, to short but instead an opportunity to buy a dip for more to come going forward (until further notice).

TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Positive. Long on Monday open (Trade Day 4).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Negative. A sell for Friday’s open (Trade Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Positive. Long on Monday Open (Trade Day 4).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Positive (Day 2).
FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (54, rising in neutral).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 33 Buys, rising; 23 Overbought, 0 Oversold, no buys today, 11 sells.

The rally results so far (four full days):

TQQQ up 6.7 percent.
XIV up 6.5 percent.
UPRO up 3.0 percent.
TNA up 2.7 percent.

The net gain for a basket of the above leveraged ETFs for the trade is 4.7 percent.

In the midst of a four day trade it is probably worth taking a look at 10 familiar stocks on this swing:

(click on chart for a larger view)

10_stocks_2017-07-13_1418

#MarketTiming – Day 4 0f Upswing

The general market moved up again today. Fourth consecutive day up on the Nasdaq. It is the third day of the trade from Monday’s open. A four or more day move is where the money is made in swing trading, particularly with 3x-leveraged ETFs (see table below), or options, or futures.

At the same time, this market is getting wildly overbought. Forty-three of my Nifty-50 stocks are on buys, with 34 overbought. This is a lot.

The Nasdaq composite is more than two standard deviations of an average advance. That puts it on borrowed time for more upside. Needless to say, it can borrow more time. Markets go up until they go down. Simple as that, and this bull market has had an inclination to put on more gains just when one thinks it should stall.

It is time still to let profits run since all principal buy signals remain positive and long-term breadth just turned positive also, making this a market now to buy the dips, any dips.

TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Positive. Long on Monday open (Trade Day 3).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Positive. Long on Monday open (Trade Day 3).
VOLATILITY: Positive. Long on Monday Open (Trade Day 3).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Positive (Day 1).
FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (47, rising back into neutral).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 43 Buys, rising; 34 Overbought, 0 Oversold.

The rally results so far (three full days):

TQQQ up 6.0 percent.
XIV up 5.4 percent.
UPRO up 2.3 percent.
TNA up 2.8 percent.

The net gain for a basket of the above leverage ETF for the three days in the trade is 4.1 percent.

#DayTrading – in the pursuit of simplicity…

Best day trading rally ever?

On TQQQ, the 3x-leveraged ETF for the Nasdaq, 15 percent year to date ($15k total trading $100k on each trade), with 75 percent of the trades profitable. No overnight risk.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

DAYTRADE2017-03-10_0846

#MarketTiming – trigger for an up swing…

TREND TRADE: Long from open, 11/9.

SWING TRADE: Long from open, 12/27.

DAY/SCALP TRADE: Long…

PRICE TREND: Up 1 day.

SETUP:

Market breadth turned up Friday before the Christmas weekend giving a renewed timing buy signal for Tuesday’s open.

Easiest play would be the long index 3x-leveraged ETFs – TQQQ, TNA, XIV, UPRO.

The top eight stocks in my newly sorted nifty-fifty list are HIIQ, C, X, BRKS, ACM, JPM, KRO, APOG.  Watching for continued bullishness there and bank stocks also were strong across the board Friday.

Stocks from the list triggering new individuals buy signals were TPC, TBPH, SKYW, DV, MDP.

Expecting a run up for at least the day and likely a swing for much of the week.

But as Trader Vic Sperandeo once said if the market doesn’t do what is expected, it is likely to do the opposite twice a much so am using tight time and price stops for this swing.

#MarketTiming – the trend is…

The trend is your friend.  Heard that old saw a thousand times, and yet how many often is it forgotten?  The trend is your friend.  True last year, true this year.  True in 1920, 50, 70, 90 and now.  True, in 1929, and in 1987, and in 2000, and in 2008.

True now.

TREND TRADE: Long from open, 11/9 – UPRO up 14.6%, TQQQ up 6.4%, TNA up 37.1%, XIV up 23.8%.

SWING TRADE: Long from open, 12/16 – UPRO up .3%, TQQQ up .7%, TNA up 3.4%, XIV up 5.6%.

DAY/SCALP TRADE: Long on open, flat on close – UPRO up .25%, TQQQ up .55%, TNA up 1.45%, XIV up 1.61%.

Among the other 3x-leverage ETFs on the trend trade from 11/9 ERX is up 25.6%, SOXL up 27.6%, FAS up 30%.

Notable stocks on the trend trade AAPL up 5.2%, GS up 27.7%, TSLA up 9.2%, UAL up 25.9%, BID up 16.7%, FB down 4%.

Market timing the trend – quite spectacular, still on-going….