#DayTrading – in the pursuit of simplicity…

Best day trading rally ever?

On TQQQ, the 3x-leveraged ETF for the Nasdaq, 15 percent year to date ($15k total trading $100k on each trade), with 75 percent of the trades profitable. No overnight risk.

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#MarketTiming – trigger for an up swing…

TREND TRADE: Long from open, 11/9.

SWING TRADE: Long from open, 12/27.

DAY/SCALP TRADE: Long…

PRICE TREND: Up 1 day.

SETUP:

Market breadth turned up Friday before the Christmas weekend giving a renewed timing buy signal for Tuesday’s open.

Easiest play would be the long index 3x-leveraged ETFs – TQQQ, TNA, XIV, UPRO.

The top eight stocks in my newly sorted nifty-fifty list are HIIQ, C, X, BRKS, ACM, JPM, KRO, APOG.  Watching for continued bullishness there and bank stocks also were strong across the board Friday.

Stocks from the list triggering new individuals buy signals were TPC, TBPH, SKYW, DV, MDP.

Expecting a run up for at least the day and likely a swing for much of the week.

But as Trader Vic Sperandeo once said if the market doesn’t do what is expected, it is likely to do the opposite twice a much so am using tight time and price stops for this swing.

#MarketTiming – the trend is…

The trend is your friend.  Heard that old saw a thousand times, and yet how many often is it forgotten?  The trend is your friend.  True last year, true this year.  True in 1920, 50, 70, 90 and now.  True, in 1929, and in 1987, and in 2000, and in 2008.

True now.

TREND TRADE: Long from open, 11/9 – UPRO up 14.6%, TQQQ up 6.4%, TNA up 37.1%, XIV up 23.8%.

SWING TRADE: Long from open, 12/16 – UPRO up .3%, TQQQ up .7%, TNA up 3.4%, XIV up 5.6%.

DAY/SCALP TRADE: Long on open, flat on close – UPRO up .25%, TQQQ up .55%, TNA up 1.45%, XIV up 1.61%.

Among the other 3x-leverage ETFs on the trend trade from 11/9 ERX is up 25.6%, SOXL up 27.6%, FAS up 30%.

Notable stocks on the trend trade AAPL up 5.2%, GS up 27.7%, TSLA up 9.2%, UAL up 25.9%, BID up 16.7%, FB down 4%.

Market timing the trend – quite spectacular, still on-going….

 

#StockMarket – it has to stall before any fall…

And there is hardly any sign of either – the stall or a fall – as index breakouts begin (or continue) everywhere.

Hard to believe this rally, much like the post-Brexit rally but here it is, the same marching song,  with the lows above the lows on the NYMO, McClellan Oscillator (green circles on the chart below), tapping out the same beat while the rising NYSI, the McClellan Summation Index, plays the baseline.

Needless to say this has been a spectacular rally since the NYMO first turned up (at the end of that nine-day October decline) on 11/03.  Among the 3x-leveraged ETFs I’ve written about off and on here for years, TNA is up 47 percent from there; TQQQ up 12.3 percent; UPRO up 16.5 percent; XIV 31.5 percent; and as to sectors, BIB up 33.5 percent; FAS up 30 percent; SOXL up 28.6 percent and ERX up 22.2 percent. If one had to guess, it would be TQQQ catching up to the others going forward.

From the last upturn in the NYSI posted here in my “IT RHYMES” thread (see an updated second chart below), TNA is up 6.3 percent; TQQQ up 6.8 percent; and XIV up 13 percent.

Once again, the wonders of breadth as monitored by the McClellan Oscillator.

If the bears have any hope at this point it is the possible choppiness that may come up Tuesday and through the holiday, and could surprise with more downside than I’m suspecting, but after that I believe the market continues its march higher into the Santa-Claus rally.

(right click on the chart for a larger view)

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$XIV – swing trading the 5-day average

Just a simple notion for XIV – following the blue line for swing, day-trades and scalps…

XIV is an inverse VIX based ETF that goes up when the VIX goes down, and down when the VIX goes up.  Especially easy to trade long as the market rises and volatility decreases. Its opposite is VXX or the wild and crazy leveraged UVXY.

See the blue vertical lines on the chart below for examples of entries along the five-day exponential average.

And for exits, the idea is to take frequent profits because XIV swings and snaps like a pennant in the wind.

This is just for entertainment and education purposes and not to be construed as actual trading advice.

(click on the chart for a larger image)

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$UVXY – a look at a pure trending day

Following the red…

I guess the most surprising thing about today’s market sell-off is that it supposedly came out of the blue, a jet falling out of the sky.

But did it?  It’s September after all and September for bulls is historically the cruelest month.  Did everyone start thinking it would be different this time?  Again, yesterday?

Then there is the 40 day sideways move on the SPX…That could not go on forever. Typically when it breaks out of a tight range it breaks big one way or the other.

Now that’s a cloud hanging over the market that could be filled with thunder-and-lightning resistance on any snap back up to the breakdown line on the daily charts.

Technically speaking my follow-the-red indicator (the intraday trend) gave sell signals on the close yesterday on QQQ and SPY, but not on IWM.  It slid sideways into a buy signal on the VIX-based ETFs, in this cas the inverse 3x-leveraged UVXY (see chart below).  And UVXY, maybe the wildest and craziest ETF of all, put its volatility on display, up 32 percent on the day, 24 percent from the open.

Wow.

Can’t be totally bearish since this market has defied sell-offs like this before.  Downside trending days like today tend to use up all of initial selling power so Monday could easily be sideways to up.

Still, the bears are on the prowl so it is time for bulls and investors to use stops to keep from getting mauled.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

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#StocksToBuy for Tuesday’s open

Following the green…

My newly sorted Nifty-Fifty stock list had buys signals triggered pre-holiday for Tuesday’s open: CARB, UBNT, BID, TRMB, TFX, and CYS (also a yield play).

Among the 3x-leveraged ETFs giving new buys signals: ERX, TNA, TQQQ, and UPRO.

Looking for follow through to the upside for a day trade tomorrow, and maybe a hold for a swing through the week.  But if they violate the open on a five-minute chart, they can be stopped out,  something that has been happening all too much lately in this choppy, nevertheless up-grinding market…

Of note, CYS (see sample chart below) is up 22 percent year today on these swing signals (long only) in addition to sporting a double-digit dividend yield.

Update:

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$SPY – trending day in the works?

Following the green…

After coming into the day from Friday’s late-day weakness the market so far today has had a reversal and is trending up, giving buys on UPRO, TQQQ, TNA, XIV, the futures, call options.

(right click on chart for a larger view)

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$DUST – my prettiest charts

After the gold stocks’ long run, DUST, the 3x-Leverage Bear ETF, is finally having its swing to glitter.  Up 20% in the the past two days, 36% from a buy signal seven days ago.

Today’s blast looks climatic. So the prudent strategy, me thinks, would be to take some off or at least snug up the stops.

Almost needless to say, DUST and its direct bullish counterpart NUGT can be extremely volatile capable of double-digit advances or declines on any given day.

(right click on chart for a larger view)

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