And there is hardly any sign of either – the stall or a fall – as index breakouts begin (or continue) everywhere.
Hard to believe this rally, much like the post-Brexit rally but here it is, the same marching song, with the lows above the lows on the NYMO, McClellan Oscillator (green circles on the chart below), tapping out the same beat while the rising NYSI, the McClellan Summation Index, plays the baseline.
Needless to say this has been a spectacular rally since the NYMO first turned up (at the end of that nine-day October decline) on 11/03. Among the 3x-leveraged ETFs I’ve written about off and on here for years, TNA is up 47 percent from there; TQQQ up 12.3 percent; UPRO up 16.5 percent; XIV 31.5 percent; and as to sectors, BIB up 33.5 percent; FAS up 30 percent; SOXL up 28.6 percent and ERX up 22.2 percent. If one had to guess, it would be TQQQ catching up to the others going forward.
From the last upturn in the NYSI posted here in my “IT RHYMES” thread (see an updated second chart below), TNA is up 6.3 percent; TQQQ up 6.8 percent; and XIV up 13 percent.
Once again, the wonders of breadth as monitored by the McClellan Oscillator.
If the bears have any hope at this point it is the possible choppiness that may come up Tuesday and through the holiday, and could surprise with more downside than I’m suspecting, but after that I believe the market continues its march higher into the Santa-Claus rally.
(right click on the chart for a larger view)
Just updating the chart below that noted the moment the post election bounce became a market rally.
Nothing much more to say except one suspects there will be a break of the highs everywhere either tomorrow or early next week.
But it’s been a blast that, coupled with the first run to the upside, is now fairly extended without a pullback (115 points in the last three days on the Nasdaq Comp) so I’m tightening stops just to be safe.
(This are just my notes to myself, presented here solely for entertainment purposes, and not to be construed as investment or trading advice.)
(click on the chart for a larger view)
What a difference a day makes.
Yesterday, while the general market drifted higher, seven of the top eight weighted stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX), were down and down solidly. Only CMCSA was up.
That was odd but also a clear picture of what stocks were lagging the rally. Today seven (at the moment) are up and only CMCSA is stalled (the irony).
I could be wrong but I expect today’s rally in these stocks to continue going forward.
(Click on the charts for a larger view)
It is said history may not repeat so much as it rhymes.
Repeats, rhymes, whatever. This time looks more like a repeat.
The chart below featuring the Nasdaq Comp (the heavy green line with the diamond) shows the market action pre-election and the reaction since in comparison to the Brexit sell-off in June (the plunge on the left). Note the one-day dips (most recently last Thursday) before the next big run in both instances (the darker green circles), which is to say the market is above to keep going higher, maybe all the way to Christmas.
Yeah, at least a rhyme.
(right click on chart for a larger view)
This is a stair-stepping downtrend in the precious metals.
Certainly can’t be because of the instability of the recent US election so probably because higher interest rates are coming but what does it matter? It is what it is.
Rather extreme drop today which may lead to a bounce but the pattern is obvious – break support, consolidate, break support, every lower and lower, going down until it doesn’t anymore.
(right click on chart to see larger image)
Just a simple notion for XIV – following the blue line for swing, day-trades and scalps…
XIV is an inverse VIX based ETF that goes up when the VIX goes down, and down when the VIX goes up. Especially easy to trade long as the market rises and volatility decreases. Its opposite is VXX or the wild and crazy leveraged UVXY.
See the blue vertical lines on the chart below for examples of entries along the five-day exponential average.
And for exits, the idea is to take frequent profits because XIV swings and snaps like a pennant in the wind.
This is just for entertainment and education purposes and not to be construed as actual trading advice.
(click on the chart for a larger image)
After four more states ended marijuana prohibition in Tuesday’s election with California (the biggie), Massachusetts, Maine and Nevada legalizing its use, there is increased interest in the stocks in the sector.
Many are small and speculative almost beyond belief. No doubt several will someday be big winners but the for now leader in the sector is GWPH.
Here is a description of the company (borrowing from Yahoo finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GWPH/profile?p=GWPH):
GW Pharmaceuticals plc, a biopharmaceutical company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in discovering, developing, and commercializing cannabinoid prescription medicines. It operates through three segments: Commercial, Sativex Research and Development, and Pipeline Research and Development. The company primarily offers Sativex, an oromucosal spray for the treatment of spasticity due to multiple sclerosis. It also focuses on the Phase III clinical development program of Sativex for use in the treatment of cancer pain; and Phase 2 trials in other indications, such as neuropathic pain. In addition, the companys product pipeline includes Epidiolex, a treatment for Dravet syndrome and Lennox-Gastaut syndrome, as well as other product candidates in Phase 1 and 2 clinical development for the treatment of glioma, adult epilepsy, type-2 diabetes, and schizophrenia. It operates in the United Kingdom, Europe, the United States, Canada, and Asia. GW Pharmaceuticals plc was founded in 1998 and is based in Cambridge, the United Kingdom.
And technically speaking, the stock is strong. Swing traders may want to just follow the blue 5-day exponential average to move in and out to reduce risk.
(right click on the chart for a larger view)
Corrections Corporation of American back in the growth business?
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FIRST THEY CAME
“First they came …” is a famous statement and provocative poem written by Pastor Martin Niemöller (1892–1984) about the cowardice of German intellectuals following the Nazis‘ rise to power and subsequent purging of their chosen targets, group after group. Many variations and adaptations in the spirit of the original have been published in the English language. It deals with themes of persecution, guilt and responsibility.
The best-known versions of the speech are the poems that began circulating by the 1950s. The United States Holocaust Memorial Museum quotes the following text as one of the many poetic versions of the speech:
||First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Socialist.Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Trade Unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.
These eight stocks rose to the top of my nifty-50 stock list as the market began the current rally.
Into to the recent low the SPX declined 9 days in a row which is called stretching the rubber band too far. No wonder there was such big blast to the upside yesterday.
With the market down 8 days in a row, breadth turned up on 11/3 giving a buy signal for the open of 11/4 (as has been said before “buy when the market tells you, sell when the stock tells you”). From the open of 11/4 to today’s close (11/8): CLCD is up 1%; CWEI, UP 15.4%, FNSR, UP 3.4%; NFLX, UP 1.8%, NTES UP 3.5%, TBPH UP 6.4%, TWI UP 14.1%, and XRS UP 5%. Deeply oversold leads to wildly overbought in a hurry sometimes.
I think the market will have one more downside swing (for whatever reason — Trump, initial profit taking, too much up too soon) but if that swing does not rip out the recent low, we will likely be in the Santa Claus rally.
The stocks below are in my personal trading journal (not a recommendation for anyone else), with appropriate stops of course.
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