#MarketTiming — well…that was a big bounce…

My Nifty-50 stock list went from 39 stocks on sells with 30 oversold at the beginning of the day to 43 on buys and 11 overbought at the close. There were 34 new buy signals on the stocks today.

Thirty-four buys in one day. Can’t remember when last a one-day blast like today happened in the stocks.

I think the telling number going into today’s trading was that 30 oversold in addition to upthrust from the lower green line and arrow on the chart posted yesterday and updated today (below).

This feels like a buying panic that could I suppose carry to new highs especially on the Nasdaq.

On the S&P it seems more likely it goes up to the levels it was at when it sold off last week and stall (that would be about 247-248 on the SPY, which closed at 246.54 today). If so then we will likely see a retest of last week’s low levels, particularly because long-term breadth is still negative and there is no divergence in the short-term breadth numbers.

But for now this is an obvious bull market that is still going up until one day it is obviously going down.

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Buy. Price (Day 2).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Sell. (Day 2).
VOLATILITY: Buy, (Day 2).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Sell (Day 9).
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (39, but still at a greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 43 Buys; 11 Overbought, 1 Oversold, 34 new buys today, 0 new sells.

Stocks in the Nifty-50 list on buy signals: too numerous to list but highlights from on the day include KEM up 7.5%, NVMI up 6.2%, PNK up 6.0% and MOMO up 5.5%.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

Niftyfifty2017-08-13_1806

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$UVXY – big swing but watch out this week…

Got the UVXY swing for 50-plus percent off the 11 consecutive days down.

See the July 23rd post below: “UVXY – what a week this could be…”

Note the red dots on the UVXY chart below and the reversal on the VIX Friday.

Likely some upside to continue from Friday’s bounce into this week before any retest of this last week’s decline.

(click on chart for a larger view)

uvxy-vix2017-08-13_1647

$XIV – up 63% on swing trades YTD…

Haven’t posted here for a while. Out of sheer laziness.

In that time, the market gave a buy for today’s open on all three of my swing trading signals – Price, Breadth, Volatility. As a day trade the primary leveraged ETFs I follow were up modestly — TQQQ up 1.28 percent from the open, XIV up .83 percent, UPRO up .34 percent.

Breadth gave a sell for tomorrow’s open so will take some off the table but the other two signals remain in place.

Over at Traders-Talk.com the question was asked today: “Is anyone doing anything novel with the VIX?” I’m not going to tell exactly what is the novel I’m doing except to say I use the VIX to generate the Volatility swing signal, and I suppose this is as good a time as any, to note that XIV, the 3x-leveraged ETF based on the VIX, going long only is up 63 percent on thirty-eight swing signals year to date (with 65% of the trades profitable).

The Volatility signal is posted here everyday (or sometimes, like today, when I get around to it):

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Buy. Price (Day 2).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Sell. (Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Buy, (Day 2).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Sell (Day 4).
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (63, greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 33 Buys; 13 Overbought, 6 Oversold, 9 new buys today, 1 new sells.

$QQQ – one-day dip or shot across the bow?

Mid-day today, the Nasdaq sold off – out of the blue and just when everyone was talking about Jeff Bezos of Amazon being the new richest man in the world supplanting Microsoft’s Bill Gates.

Amazon (AMZN) was up 30-some points at the time and finished down for the day, and is now down 55 points for the day in the aftermarket. It’s possible Bezos was the richest man for an hour or so but maybe he still is (someone else, like Forbes, will have to keep track of that).

The reversal ripped through the rest of the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) and the Nasdaq composite. And tore my nifty-50 stock list into 40 stocks on sells. That many sells or more, if not a bottom of a swing, is usually the beginning of a bottom.

In addition, the Dow and the SPX remained up so it is hard to tell the answer to the question in the title above.

Of course, tomorrow will tell.

All three of my end-of-the-day swing trade signals – price, breadth, volatility – are on sells and long-term breadth turned negative but just by a bit.

If the Nasdaq follows through to the downside and takes<the rest of the market with it, the price sell-off threatened over and over again in the internals (breadth and volatility) may finally be at hand.

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Sell. Price (Day 1).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Sell. (Day 2).
VOLATILITY: Sell, (Day 4).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Sell (Day 1).
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (73, greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 10 Buys; 8 Overbought, 14 Oversold, 21 new buys today, 4 new sells.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

AMZN2017-07-27_2124

#MarketTiming – dancing but dancing near the door…

By my count this swing is 46 trading days old, was kind of ragged and hard to read in the middle, but the longer-term breadth has been rising and there is no divergence in shorter-term breadth and with price giving another choppy buy signal today it’s likely there is more upside to come.

Still, a lot of big names (see table below) are getting long in the tooth.

This is one of those times when one wants to stay at the dance but dance near the door…and nearer to the door every day.

(TSLA was the wall flower but got asked to dance today – in other words, when the laggards start to run…).

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Positive. Long on tomorrow’s open (Trade Day 0).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Negative. Flat (Day 3).
VOLATILITY: a sell on tomorrow’s open, Flat (Day 1).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Positive (Day 9).
CNN MONEY’S FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (72, falling still at greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 23 Buys, falling; 14 Overbought, 4 Oversold, 12 new buys today, 4 new sells.

The swing-trading signals on the leveraged ETFs – TQQQ, XIV, TNA, UPRO – are flat with possible day-trading commencing tomorrow.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

StockTable_2017-07-24_1715.png

$KC – the coffee futures swing trade is short…

…with a breakeven at 135.

For years coffee has been one of the best swing-trading plays, both long and short. Now after a severe draw down that wiped out profits for the year, the swings appear to be back on track. If this continues, it will again be a very profitable year for coffee speculators.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

COFFEE2017-07-13_1436

#SwingTrading – taking profits…

The Nasdaq Composite is up seven days in a row. That is a true testament to the bullishness of this bull market.

My price only trading signal as a result is still positive (will be until it turns down) but seven in a row is rare so a pause in this rally can come any day, any minute. My volatility signal has risen six days in a row before triggering a sell for either today’s close or tomorrow’s open.

With both the short-term breadth and volatility signals on sells now taking some profits would be in order.

Should also be noted that the stock in the nifty-50 list have been rolling over from a high 0f 43 on buy signals four days ago to less than 50 percent on buys today at 21.

However, long-term breadth remains positive so any weakness here is not a short so much as a dip to buy. Often, with a strong 7-day run like this, dips are for only one day before the advance resumes.

SWING TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Positive. Long on last Monday’s open (Day 7).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Negative. Flat on today’s close or tomorrow’s open (Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Negative on today’s close (Swing Trade Day 7).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Positive (Day 4).
FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (67, rising into the greed level).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 21 Buys, falling; 17 Overbought,4 Oversold, 5 buys today, 14 sells.

The rally results so far (seven full days):

TQQQ up 9.3 percent.
XIV up 11.3 percent.
UPRO up 4.0 percent.
TNA up 4.2 percent.

The net gain for a basket of the above leveraged ETFs for the trade is 7.2 percent.

(Disclaimer: This blog entry and all others here are for entertainment purposes only and should not be construed as direct investment advice.)

CNN Money’s Fear and Greed Index:

(click on chart for a larger view)

fear_and_greed2017-07-17_1525

#MarketTiming – Day 4 0f Upswing

The general market moved up again today. Fourth consecutive day up on the Nasdaq. It is the third day of the trade from Monday’s open. A four or more day move is where the money is made in swing trading, particularly with 3x-leveraged ETFs (see table below), or options, or futures.

At the same time, this market is getting wildly overbought. Forty-three of my Nifty-50 stocks are on buys, with 34 overbought. This is a lot.

The Nasdaq composite is more than two standard deviations of an average advance. That puts it on borrowed time for more upside. Needless to say, it can borrow more time. Markets go up until they go down. Simple as that, and this bull market has had an inclination to put on more gains just when one thinks it should stall.

It is time still to let profits run since all principal buy signals remain positive and long-term breadth just turned positive also, making this a market now to buy the dips, any dips.

TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Positive. Long on Monday open (Trade Day 3).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Positive. Long on Monday open (Trade Day 3).
VOLATILITY: Positive. Long on Monday Open (Trade Day 3).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Positive (Day 1).
FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (47, rising back into neutral).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 43 Buys, rising; 34 Overbought, 0 Oversold.

The rally results so far (three full days):

TQQQ up 6.0 percent.
XIV up 5.4 percent.
UPRO up 2.3 percent.
TNA up 2.8 percent.

The net gain for a basket of the above leverage ETF for the three days in the trade is 4.1 percent.

#MarketTiming – Day 3 of the upswing…

The rally continued into its third day Tuesday. It is day 3 of the upswing but only day 2 of the trade (the buy was on the open Monday).

All buy signals are still in place and the market is likely to continue higher but it would not hurt to tighten stops to insure against any losses (as in never let a profit turn into a loss).

Longer-term breadth has remained negative for the fourth day. If it does not turn positive soon, there likely is going to be a sell down.

TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Positive. Long on Monday open (Trade Day 2).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Positive. Long on Monday open (Trade Day 2).
VOLATILITY: Positive. Long on Monday Open (Trade Day 2).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Negative (Day 4).
FEAR AND GREED INDEX: (41, falling into fear).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 40 Buys, rising; 26 Overbought, 2 Oversold.

The rally results so far (two full days):

TQQQ up 2.2 percent.
XIV up 2.70 percent.
UPRO up .20 percent.
TNA up .60 percent.
Net: 1.42 percent.

Needs to be noted: This is the second day the Buys-versus-Sells ratio on my Nifty-50 stock list has exceed 25, a level that often brings an immediate flat to down day (see chart of the Nasdaq Composite below with the ratio above the red line).

(click on chart for a larger view)

BuySells

#MarketTiming – looking for more upside…

After Friday’s upside surge looking for more up to come.

Trouble is all last week every big up move in QQQ was followed day by an equal drop; same for the SPY. It has been an extremely choppy market of late on a daily basis.

But for now, the three main end-of the-day trading triggers — PRICE, BREADTH, VOLATILITY — are all in buy mode so the market timing is a buy until it is not.

TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Positive. Long on Monday open (Day 1).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Positive. Long on Monday open (Day 1).
VOLATILITY: Positive. Long on Monday Open (Day 1).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Negative (Day2).
FEAR AND GREED INDEX: Neutral (49, rising).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 39 Buys, 11 Sells, 10 Overbought, 4 Oversold.

(click on chart for a larger image)
Spy