As $BID goes so goes the market

The Sotheby’s Holding’s indicator.

Not much to say since a picture worth a million words pretty much says it all, in this case a long-term monthly chart of the stock :

(right click image for a larger view)

BID_2015-12-28_0859

 

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$SPY – A dreaded doji ends the swing

At week’s end (maybe should say at the end of this week’s two and a half trading days), SPY put on a candlestick doji to end the swing.

Nice week though with UPRO up 4.1%, TNA up 6.2% and TQQQ up 2.1%, the 3X-leveraged ETFs on the major indexes; among the sector 3Xers the big winner was ERX up north of 12 percent.

Have gone to cash on the doji but this remains a buy-the-dips time until further notice.

(right click the chart for a larger view)

Dio6Months2015-12-25_0857

$GPRO – not much go anymore

Nick Woodman, the founder and CEO of GoPro Inc., is obviously a fun guy.  He got the idea for the action-camera company on a surfing trip to Australia. He’s reportedly an adrenaline junkie in every which way but loose.  Since GoPro was founded in 2002 and went public last year, he’s racked up an estimated $1.3 billion net worth.  He’s generous privately and a philanthropist publicly. CNBC says he’s ordered a $50-millon yacht that can have a crew of 13.  Practically every photo shows him either smiling from wall to wall or laughing uproariously.

But…

But GPRO, his company’s stock, is down 80% from its high and down 41% from its IPO close.  (It’s up 65 percent on my latest long-term short signal.)  The stock had a great run but that obviously is a over.  It is a niche gadget company that has likely saturated its customer demand.  It may base down here at 18 or so but there’s no real support underneath it and the downtrend continues.

So, as the pleasant Mr. Woodman sails the seven seas in his new yacht, the rest of us can avoid his stock which may end up no bigger than a dinghy.

(right click on the chart to view a larger image)

Gpro2015-12-24_0601

 

Market – Santa bounce season

It’s Christmas rally time and the stock market could rally the rest of the week.

Nice turn in the market today off Friday’s nasty plunge with divergences all over the place.

For instance, my nifty-50 stock list, after registering an important 40 stocks on sells on the 12/14 drop, could manage 31 on sells on last week’s plunge.

As for other breadth indicators see the green circles on the chart below — plain and simple those often trigger bounces, and bounces can trigger rallies.  In other words, it is likely the market bounces the rest of the week and could maybe rally the rest of the year (just maybe).

I’m looking to TQQQ, TNA and UPRO, the 3X-leveraged ETFs for the major indexes to play the bounce.  Stocks in the nifty-50-list giving new buy signals for tomorrow’s open included EFUT, ZEN, HA, PCRX, AMAT, and WAL.  Big caps giving individual buys signals: WMT, HD, INTC, MMM, SBUX. And there are always futures and options.

(Anything written here should not be construed as investment advice but instead no more than a personal log of my market timing.)

All in all in this traditionally bullish season, it appears one better not pout, and better not cry, because Santa Claus is coming to town.

(right click image for a larger view)

TWITTER_RALLY2015-12-21_1506

#Solar Stocks shine again

Every month or so I’ve written about renewable energy, particularly solar stocks.  Since is been a month since I’ve written about anything here, I thought I’d start up again with this old favorite.

The bottom line in stock selection is “when in doubt buy renewable energy.”

As I’ve said before (back in August, see blog post below):

Always a good sector to buy with any market rally, solar may be the best chance to rack up a 50% gain in the next couple of months.  Longer-term, no matter how volatile, it is a growth sector and preferable in the future to investing in fossil fuel stocks of any kind, particularly better than coal.

As it turned out I may have underestimated the sector.

Witness this past month in solar stocks (right click to view a larger  image):

solar_2015-12-18_0932