$SPY – today the bounce, tomorrow the rally?

Had 44 sells on my nifty-fifty stock list Thursday. Forty plus sells usually marks, if not the bottom of a swing, the beginning of the bottom (see my simple chart below). Now couple that with the NYMO turning the NYSI up again, and the VIX plunging below the magic 15 level (again, after a fifth climactic day up in a row), and the indexes turning up from oversold, and today’s bounce was (short of nuclear war over weekend) almost inevitable.

Now the question is can the bounce continue? Probably, and if the next dip (tomorrow, or whenever) can’t take out what is staring us in the face, I SPY a rally to the top of the SPY range or higher by sell-in-May-and-stay-away time.

And if the next downturn does trip this setup (tomorrow, or whenever), well…that will be rather bearish.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

MASTER2017-04-17_1628

#SwingTrading – up move in motion…

TREND TRADE: Long from open, 11/9.

SWING TRADE: Long from open, 12/27.

DAY/SCALP TRADE: Long, long…

PRICE TREND: Up 2 days.

SETUP:

Market breadth continues to climb, prices continue to rise, more and more stocks register individual buy signals…obviously, the move to the upside, triggered Friday, continued today…

It must be time again to state the market’s second clearest axiom -“the market will go up until it goes down.”  (The clearest axiom, reputed to have been stated by J.P. Morgan himself is “the market will fluctuate.”)

Of the stocks on my nifty-fifty list, 20 gave individual buy signals today, bringing the total to stocks-on-buys to 38 up from 18 Friday.  Too numerous to in total, the stocks include X, KRO, CECO, NUE, BAC, LECO, FORM and FAST.

More notable, all eight of the 3x-leveraged ETFs I follow are on buys — TQQQ, TNA, UPRO, XIV, FAS, BIB, ERX, SOXL.

Let’s call the featured chart below “After Consolidating SPY Tries To Resume Its Rally” because it likely will.

(right click on the chart for a larger view)

trendswing_2016-12-27_0818

 

 

#MarketTiming – trigger for an up swing…

TREND TRADE: Long from open, 11/9.

SWING TRADE: Long from open, 12/27.

DAY/SCALP TRADE: Long…

PRICE TREND: Up 1 day.

SETUP:

Market breadth turned up Friday before the Christmas weekend giving a renewed timing buy signal for Tuesday’s open.

Easiest play would be the long index 3x-leveraged ETFs – TQQQ, TNA, XIV, UPRO.

The top eight stocks in my newly sorted nifty-fifty list are HIIQ, C, X, BRKS, ACM, JPM, KRO, APOG.  Watching for continued bullishness there and bank stocks also were strong across the board Friday.

Stocks from the list triggering new individuals buy signals were TPC, TBPH, SKYW, DV, MDP.

Expecting a run up for at least the day and likely a swing for much of the week.

But as Trader Vic Sperandeo once said if the market doesn’t do what is expected, it is likely to do the opposite twice a much so am using tight time and price stops for this swing.