#MarketTiming – Stocks To Short

With the general market trudging toward a overall sell signal, several big-cap stocks gave sell signals today and are probably worth a short on tomorrow’s open for a scalp (and maybe more).

Likely, the AAPL miss on earnings today, will be a trigger for a broader market decline tomorrow.  Must keep in mind that the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee will conclude its April meeting tomorrow also.

In other words, there are cross currents galore but…when is it not so?

These are liquid enough for options trading (buying puts, shorting calls, verticals, etc…).

The stocks are:

  • WMT
  • T
  • VZ
  • GOOGL
  • MDT

Interesting that both T and VZ registered sells today, possibly in reaction to the sell-off reversal day in T-Mobile (TMUS) on earnings.  TMUS itself is obviously also a worthy candidate for a short, looking for follow-through on today’s action.

(right click on the chart for a larger view)

TMUS

 

#MarketTiming – Stocks long

Quite a reversal day in the stock market today.  Getting hard to get a sell off of any kind despite the many signs there is one coming.

So, for now, option-liquid stocks worth a shot for a day trade (at least):

  • NKE
  • PFE
  • CELG
  • TGT
  • FSLR

If the market follows through to the upside on today’s reversal, NKE looks like it’s due for a bounce with it.  But let’s feature a chart of FSLR because when in doubt buy renewable energy (it is the future).

(right click on image for a larger view)

FSLR2016-04-12_2248

#Greed top could lead to #SPY stumble

CNN Money’s “Fear and Greed Index”, a calculation of seven key market indicators in order to gauge the primary emotions underlying the stock market, appears to have put in a double top at an extreme greed level.

Historically, this pattern has led to significant sell-offs in the general market as investors’ and traders’ greed, fueled by the market’s recent rally, cycle down once again to a prevalent fear level.

There is really no way to tell how far the S&P 500 index (SPX, also the SPY ETF) will fall but the last time this down cycle took place the SPY fell from a high of 211 to a low of 185 (about 250 SPX points, a 10% or so correction). There is no guarantee it will stop there.

Regardless, this is an excellent shorting opportunity across the face of the stock market, just as it will eventually lead to an fine buying opportunity later on.

Market timing.  They say it can’t be done but a study of the chart below should make it rather obvious “they” don’t know what they are talking about.

(right click on the chart to view a larger image)

FEAR_AND_GREED_2016-04-11_1609

$KC (Coffee) a swing traders dream

Long again.

This futures trade just keep perking (up and down).

Note the arrows on the chart below – it truly is a swing traders dream (at least for time being since nothing last forever).

(click on chart for a larger view)

COFFEE_2016-04-11_0959

#MarketTiming – stock shorts

Market Context: Bearish. 

All trades on sells or shorts from open of 4/5/16.

Swing ETFs: UVXY (from 20.65), SQQQ (18.51), TZA (44.30), UPRO (62.50), NUGT (59.00).

Day/Swing Trades (short) for open of 4/11/16 (options-liquid stocks):

  • WYNN
  • SBUX
  • LLY
  • MRK
  • RTN
  • LMT
  • JNJ
  • MCD
  • BMY

Notable that so many big pharma stocks have triggered sells.

Featured short (put play): PFE.

(click on chart for a larger view)

PFE_2016-04-10_1937

#NYSE Margin Debt

This may be too simplistic but every time I look at this Doug Short chart, I think at least 800 SPX points down before this finishes unraveling. It takes time, of course, but this time that would put the S&P 500 somewhere in the 1400s.

These numbers from the NYSE are a month old so the current record rally is not in them yet but I suspect when it is, it’ll look similar to that little blip up in 2008 just before the real tumble continued.

For Doug Short’s article GO HERE.

(click on chart for a larger view)

Nyse Margin Debt 2016-04-02_1114