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#MarketTiming – Upswing Day 2

Got what I was looking for – the general market moved up today off Friday’s turn to the upside. It remains in rally mode and is again a buy on Tuesday’s open for day traders.

TRADING SIGNALS:

PRICE: Positive. Long on Monday open (now Day 2).
SHORT-TERM BREADTH: Positive. Long on Monday open (now Day 2).
VOLATILITY: Positive. Long on Monday Open (now Day 2).

CONTEXT:

LONG-TERM BREADTH: Negative (Day 3).
FEAR AND GREED INDEX: Neutral (46, falling).
NIFTY-50 STOCK LIST: 40 Buys, rising; 19 Overbought, 3 Oversold.

Day Trade results (for those who do not hold overnight):

TQQQ up 1.72 percent.
XIV up 1.71 percent.
UPRO up .45 percent.
TNA down .20 percent.
Net: 1.02 percent.

#DayTrading – in the pursuit of simplicity…

Best day trading rally ever?

On TQQQ, the 3x-leveraged ETF for the Nasdaq, 15 percent year to date ($15k total trading $100k on each trade), with 75 percent of the trades profitable. No overnight risk.

(click on the chart for a larger view)

DAYTRADE2017-03-10_0846

#DayTrading – the simplicity of the market…

TREND TRADE: Long from open, 11/9.

SWING TRADE: Flat from open, 12/22.

DAY/SCALP TRADE: Long bias but short scalp possible..

PRICE TREND: Down 2 days.

SETUP:

Today was down across the board on follow-through from the breadth turn down 12/20.  Assume tomorrow with be more of the same.

Markets go down until they don’t anymore.  Been told that is as dumb a statement as can be made but it is in fact absolutely true and it is the very basis of simplicity so often unrecognized in market movements.  It is that simple, the market is either up or it is down.

Recognizing the simplicity is where the money is made in trading.

Again, aggressive traders might want to play the short side via short ETF’s — SQQQ (featured on the chart below), TZA, UVXY.  In fact note the previous bounce on SQQQ, not a bad scalp for some profits.  Could happen again.  Now.

(right click on the chart for a larger view)

day_trade2_2016-12-07_1311

 

#DayTrading – signals…

TREND TRADE: Long from open, 11/9.

SWING TRADE: Buy from open, 12/14.

DAY/SCALP TRADE: Long bias but short scalp possible..

PRICE TRENDS: Down 1 day.

SETUP:

Failed to post this yesterday due to time conflicts but for the record this is what was.

Although the longer term remains bullish, market breadth gave an ominous short-term warning of a possible dip in the market (which was posted, see below).  As a result there were no day-trading stocks to buy and in case the dip might become a tumble, stops needed tightening on swing and longer-term positions to preserve profits according to one’s own risk tolerance.

Scalps would be easiest on the 3x-leveraged ETFs: SQQQ, TZA, SPXS and for the those addicted to the wild and one-day crazy, UVXY (today’s move featured below).

(right click on the chart for a larger view)

day_trade2_2016-12-07_1311

 

#DayTrading #Stocks – today’s net…

Despite the market weakness across the board today, and a turn down in short-term market breadth, stocks that signaled individual buys for today’s open finished the today’s day-trade with four winners and four losers, essentially flat (up .15%) as a group.

day_trade2_2016-12-07_1311

The leader (above) was HIIQ up 6.18 from today’s open, and NUE , featured with a chart in yesterday’s tweet, (below) managed a small gain (.37%).

#DayTrading – signals…

TREND TRADE: Long from open, 11/9.

SWING TRADE: Buy from open, 12/14.

DAY/SCALP TRADE: Long.

PRICE TRENDS: TQQQ, up 1 day, TNA up 1 day, up down 1 day.

SETUP:

With short-term breadth once again turning up today within the long-term up trend, tomorrow’s open is again an opportunity to jump on this scary bullet train of a rally as it continues to whoosh by.

Stocks from my nifty-fifty stock list giving new individual buys today were FIVN, LSTR, TRMB, and TWI. Others of note giving individual buys signals for tomorrow included FB, CMCSA, AMZN (might be an option play) and NFLX (ditto the option play).

But virtually all index ETFs, even though overextended, are in play on the short-term breadth signal — TQQQ, TNA, UPRO — for day trades certainly, and possibly swing trades for more than a day.

Much of the prospect for success on this setup will depend on the Fed Reserve decision tomorrow and the market reaction to it.  Just saying…

UPDATE 12/14 close:

Yes, much depends on the market’s reaction the Federal Reserve’s rate hike.  And the reaction was down and as the market goes so go most stocks. Of the four stocks on buys today from the Nifty-fifty-list, one was up (barely) and three down for a loss of 1.2% on the entire basket. So it goes.

#MarketTiming – signals…

TREND TRADE: Long from open, 11/9.

SWING TRADE: Sell from open, 12/12.

DAY/SCALP TRADE: Long bias, but possible short for day/scalp.

PRICE TRENDS: TQQQ, down 1 day, TNA down 1 day, UPRO down 1 day.

SETUP:

With SWING TRADE turning down Friday and prices on the index ETFs extended to 5 to 6 days up in a row the time has come to exit all longs on Monday’s open (ideally, but otherwise on any strength Monday).

The Swing Trade today followed through with a down day across the main leveraged index ETFs – TQQQ, TNA, UPRO.  Consequently, their opposite short ETFs  were up on the day trade with marginal gains on SQQQ and SPXS, but better on TZA at 2.48% from its open to close.

Should be noted that UVXY, the wild and crazy short ETF based on the VIX, was up 2.8% for the day.  UVXY is often a quick and easy way to scalp a down day in the averages.

For tomorrow there is still there is some possibility to trade the short side either for a scalp, or a day-trade or for an aggressive swing trade, but as bullish as the market has been of late, one may have to be nimble with hard-and-fast stops.

The TREND TRADE still up, so until proven otherwise this is primarily a pause before the next run-up.  It might be more prudent to stand aside as a swing trader and watch for the next up  swing.

These comments are a journal of my trading, presented here for entertainment purposes only and not to be construed as direct trading advice.

TODAY’S INTRADAY SCALP:

(click on the chart for a larger view)

scalpday2016-12-12_0818