Update April 3, 2107:
After eight days down in a row on the Dow, today’s bounce was nearly inevitable. Eight days in a row is a lot when four is most often the magic number to buy for a bounce.
And as inevitable, an oversold sector is likely to bounce with it. In this case, the financials – that is, the banks — GS, leader to the downside, as well as JPM, BAC, and even the deadest dog of the bunch, DB, which has some serious fundamental problems all its own (besides being the last lender to loan to Donald Trump).
Most likely this bounce will continue in a rise to resistance, most likely to bottom of the boxes indicated on the chart below at the point the stocks fell through support going into this recent decline.
If they turn over again with lower highs sometime soon…say, next week…that will not be good for any bull market going forward. In other words, head up the bull might actually be stumbling.
(right click on the chart for a clearer view)
DGI, the one stock giving a buy signal for a day trade today finished down .62%, a small loss and a small price to pay for very fine week. Although the stock indexes were up again – 6 days in a row – there were more signs of a pullback, or at least a pause, in the rally – only 14 of the 50 stocks on my nifty-fifty stock list were up on the day.
The day-trading stocks for today again scored with the market’s continued rally but a stall may be coming Friday.
Today’s basket of stocks from my nifty-fifty list — BBL, NAV, SKYW, BGFV, YRD, MU and FNSR (the leader highlighted on the chart below) — had five winners and one loser for a net gain of 1.8% for the day. That won/loss on stock day trades for the week stays just above 82%.
However, there is a clue to tomorrow’s possible action since there is only one stock – DGI – on the list giving a buy for tomorrow’s open. Forty-one of the fifty stocks on my list are on buys for the current market upswing (down from 42 yesterday). Often when one runs out of new stocks to buy the swing is ready to stall, and maybe fall. That comes with market indexes up 5 days in a row so a pause here will not be surprising.
Been a very good week for the bulls.
(Right click on the charts for a larger view)
The sector to bottom fish for the long term isn’t coal, isn’t oil, isn’t fossil fuel in general, it is solar and other renewables.
No matter how much the Trump administration is going to want to pay off his blow-hard coal supporters this is still an industry with one foot in the grave and the other slipping in its own dust.
I can hear some coal boys braying but, but, but BTU (Peabody Energy, the “biggest coal company in the world”) was up 22% today to $13. Yeah. And it may go higher short term but there is a 15-to-1 reverse split in there so it’s not out of penny stock territory and Mr. Peabody biggest-coal-company-in-the-world is also in bankruptcy. And a lot of these last of the coal stocks are up a lot hoping for Trump but the future is the future and they don’t have much of one with coal plants still shutting down domestically and internationally the rest of the world going on with the Paris climate-change accord no matter what the U.S. does.
Coal, once a necessary evil, remains an evil investment in the death of the planet.
So here we are once again on the cusp of tomorrow and beyond.
There will be volatility but if one can stand it, there will be rewards in renewable energy in the fullness of time. And today’s pop in the sector might be the start of something big given that’s it come on bad news for the sector in general.
(right click on the charts for a larger view)
This is an update for yesterday’s post below in which these stocks were suggested as buys on today’s open and sells on today’s close, day trades.
The net gain on the basket was 2.04 percent, led by GPS up 4.8% lagged by HIIQ flat. Nice to have five out of six winners and actually no loser.
(click on the picture for a larger view)
These eight stocks rose to the top of my nifty-50 stock list as the market began the current rally.
Into to the recent low the SPX declined 9 days in a row which is called stretching the rubber band too far. No wonder there was such big blast to the upside yesterday.
With the market down 8 days in a row, breadth turned up on 11/3 giving a buy signal for the open of 11/4 (as has been said before “buy when the market tells you, sell when the stock tells you”). From the open of 11/4 to today’s close (11/8): CLCD is up 1%; CWEI, UP 15.4%, FNSR, UP 3.4%; NFLX, UP 1.8%, NTES UP 3.5%, TBPH UP 6.4%, TWI UP 14.1%, and XRS UP 5%. Deeply oversold leads to wildly overbought in a hurry sometimes.
I think the market will have one more downside swing (for whatever reason — Trump, initial profit taking, too much up too soon) but if that swing does not rip out the recent low, we will likely be in the Santa Claus rally.
The stocks below are in my personal trading journal (not a recommendation for anyone else), with appropriate stops of course.
(right click to see a larger image)
Sotheby’s Holding (BID) has so often been a market bellwether.
And at tops at that! A rare thing in the world of calling market direction. Bottoms are easier to see and sometimes obvious but tops…”calling” tops has killed many a market prognosticator and killed many a bear.
So let me say right off I’m not calling a top here. Just trying to pay attention…
And when BID quits rallying and/or diverges with general market, it is time to pay attention. BID was down a bit on its monthly chart in September. That is a lower high for the stock while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq drifted higher.
What’s it mean? Maybe nothing. Yet. But take a look at the chart action showing BID with the SPX on the chart below in 2000 and 2007. One might say, as BID goes so goes everything else.
And this time, so far, BID has not even crawled up to the top of its long-term price range, which is rather ominous going forward.
(click on the chart for a larger view)
With the general market trudging toward a overall sell signal, several big-cap stocks gave sell signals today and are probably worth a short on tomorrow’s open for a scalp (and maybe more).
Likely, the AAPL miss on earnings today, will be a trigger for a broader market decline tomorrow. Must keep in mind that the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee will conclude its April meeting tomorrow also.
In other words, there are cross currents galore but…when is it not so?
These are liquid enough for options trading (buying puts, shorting calls, verticals, etc…).
The stocks are:
Interesting that both T and VZ registered sells today, possibly in reaction to the sell-off reversal day in T-Mobile (TMUS) on earnings. TMUS itself is obviously also a worthy candidate for a short, looking for follow-through on today’s action.
(right click on the chart for a larger view)
Market Context: Bearish.
All trades on sells or shorts from open of 4/5/16.
Swing ETFs: UVXY (from 20.65), SQQQ (18.51), TZA (44.30), UPRO (62.50), NUGT (59.00).
Day/Swing Trades (short) for open of 4/11/16 (options-liquid stocks):
Notable that so many big pharma stocks have triggered sells.
Featured short (put play): PFE.
(click on chart for a larger view)
This may be too simplistic but every time I look at this Doug Short chart, I think at least 800 SPX points down before this finishes unraveling. It takes time, of course, but this time that would put the S&P 500 somewhere in the 1400s.
These numbers from the NYSE are a month old so the current record rally is not in them yet but I suspect when it is, it’ll look similar to that little blip up in 2008 just before the real tumble continued.
For Doug Short’s article GO HERE.
(click on chart for a larger view)
CNN Money’s Fear-and-Greed Index is, simply put, one of the most useful market-timing tools there is.
For example, the most recent rally, using the index as a trigger, bought the market on the open of February 16 (see the green vertical line on the chart below), a swing that has carried SPY, the SPX ETF, from 188 to 199 today, a gain of 5.3%, but more notably it has so far racked up gains for the 3x-leverage ETF of 17.4% in UPRO, 15.9% in the Nasdaq’s TQQQ, and a whopping 29.5% for TNA, the Russell fund.
That buy signal, now 18 trading days old, is still on and counting but …
But the Fear-and-Greed Index has now registered greed for seven days. Call it lucky or unlucky depending on one’s bullish or bearish point-of-view but seven days of greed is often all she writes on an upside swing (see the chart) before a sudden sell-down.
As they say, it could be different this time but…
But it seldom ever is.
(right click on chart for larger view)