#Stocks – if one wants to bottom fish…

The sector to bottom fish for the long term isn’t coal, isn’t oil, isn’t fossil fuel in general, it is solar and other renewables.

No matter how much the Trump administration is going to want to pay off his blow-hard coal supporters this is still an industry with one foot in the grave and the other slipping in its own dust.

I can hear some coal boys braying but, but, but BTU (Peabody Energy, the “biggest coal company in the world”) was up 22% today to $13. Yeah.  And it may go higher short term but there is a 15-to-1 reverse split in there so it’s not out of penny stock territory and Mr. Peabody biggest-coal-company-in-the-world is also in bankruptcy.  And a lot of these last of the coal stocks are up a lot hoping for Trump but the future is the future and they don’t have much of one with coal plants still shutting down domestically and internationally the rest of the world going on with the Paris climate-change accord no matter what the U.S. does.

Coal, once a necessary evil, remains an evil investment in the death of the planet.

So here we are once again on the cusp of tomorrow and beyond.

There will be volatility but if one can stand it, there will be rewards in renewable energy in the fullness of time. And today’s pop in the sector might be the start of something big given that’s it come on bad news for the sector in general.

(right click on the charts for a larger view)

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When in doubt buy solar…

Said it before but bears repeating: when in doubt buy renewable energy…

Simple as that.  Solar stocks will fluctuate with the market and with fossil fuel stocks but one day on some market swing (maybe this one) they will leave the fossil fuels companies withering in the sun, so to speak.

Recently oversold, here are a selection of solar stocks today:

(right click on chart for a larger view)

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#Solar Stocks shine again

Every month or so I’ve written about renewable energy, particularly solar stocks.  Since is been a month since I’ve written about anything here, I thought I’d start up again with this old favorite.

The bottom line in stock selection is “when in doubt buy renewable energy.”

As I’ve said before (back in August, see blog post below):

Always a good sector to buy with any market rally, solar may be the best chance to rack up a 50% gain in the next couple of months.  Longer-term, no matter how volatile, it is a growth sector and preferable in the future to investing in fossil fuel stocks of any kind, particularly better than coal.

As it turned out I may have underestimated the sector.

Witness this past month in solar stocks (right click to view a larger  image):

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$TAN – Solar stocks ready to rise and shine again

About a month ago I wrote in this blog:

Always a good sector to buy with any market rally, solar may be the best chance to rack up a 50% gain in the next couple of months.  Longer-term, no matter how volatile, it is a growth sector and preferable in the future to investing in fossil fuel stocks of any kind, particularly better than coal.

There will likely be a couple of more dips (which is worth noting) before this rise gets really going but historically it will, like the sun itself, rise again.

It appears the “couple of more dips” noted above may be done and it is time for the solar ETF to really get going.  Since I wrote that, CNN Money’s Fear and Greed Index as been reading fear but working its way higher, and TAN has now dropped to a level that may produce a double bottom for this swing (see the first chart below).

I say “may produce a double bottom” because it still has to turn up but it appears in pre-market action today that today is likely THE DAY.

This is a sector that has been sold off heavily on the CNN index’s swing from greed to fear. Consequently, the stocks in the sector like CSIQ, FSLR (which is showing strength premarket and is often a leader),  SUNE, JKS, SPWR, are deeply oversold (see the second chart below).

The oversold conditions make the stock buys all bottom picks.  This a play for a bounce initially (always with tight stops) that may very well turn into the 50% rally mentioned above.

(Click on the chart for a larger image)

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(Click on the chart for a larger image)

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Breathe easier — coal’s dead-end road…

Finally President Obama has come right out and said it — coal has got to go.

For all of its history, at best a necessary evil, the coal industry was been poisoning the planet, killing mountains and streams, enslaving whole regions of people in West Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania and now in the Powder River Basin in Wyoming and Montana, and with  a wanton disregard for mine safety and health, even killing its own employees.

Even now in the waning years of coal-powered electrical generation, the financial calculations of the damage to public health by the industry exceed the market cap of many of the coal companies themselves.

With the advancement of renewable clean energy technologies in wind and solar and thermal (and probably in the end in safer nuclear), it is time for clean renewable energy to take over the future.

The President’s announced plan, as the New York Times has just now editorialized with President Obama’s Tough, Achievable Climate Plan, continues the trend that has been going on now for some time as fracking for cleaner natural gas, as well as environmental regulations, have taken a devastating toll on the coal companies stocks. It is getting to the point now that the industry’s constant blat that coal is cheaper (even if it kills you) is not going to play anymore against the better cleaner sources of energy.

These last couple of years, companies like Peabody Energy (BTU) and Cloud Peak Energy (CLD) have made a desperate attempt to advance coal exports to China and India by proposing to build shipping terminals on the West Coast but they have been met by a solid wall of environmentalist saying no way and those efforts seem doomed (although the companies are still burning maybe the last of their cash to try to overcome their fierce opposition). And on a visit to China not so long ago, President Obama reached an agreement with the Chinese to curb coal imports there.

It’s getting so coal finally has no where to turn.

And the stocks show it (see the panel below). These stocks not only have little to no chance for investment growth, they are in fact risks to all shareholder equity as more and more of them, like Patriot Coal and James River Coal and Walter Energy, go bankrupt.

The time has come it appears to wave goodbye to the coal boys and breathe easier all over the world.

(Click on chart for a larger image)

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$TAN – Solar ETF on the move up

$TAN – The solar energy ETF has begun again to move with CNN Money’s Fear and Greed Index.

Always a good sector to buy with any market rally, solar may be the best change to rack up a 50% gain in the next couple of months.  Longer-term, no matter now volatile, it is a growth sector and preferable in the future to investing in fossil fuel stock of any kind, particularly better than coal.

There will likely be a couple of more dips (which is worth noting) before this rise gets really going but historically it will, like the sun itself, rise again.

(Clink on chart for a larger image)

TWEET_TAN_2015-07-10_1138

The Sun Rises and Sets with greed and fear

The stock market runs up and down on fear, greed and time and, despite massive discussions of fundamentals, not much else.

CNN Money’s “Fear and Greed,” a index made up from a lucky seven market measures does a pretty good job of keeping track of the time it takes for a market to move from one extreme to the other.  And most sectors in the market move with it.

Lets take solar stocks as an example since solar is a growth sector and likely will be for the long term, despite short term market swings.

The chart below compares the movements of the Claymore Exchange-Traded Fund Trust 2 – Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN) to the shifts of CNN’s Fear and Greed Index (TAN is the green line with the diamonds while the fear and greed index is in red).

Generally, they move together so it may be as Warren Buffett advises on the chart to get rich be greedy when others are fearful — like now — and be fearful when others are greedy.

(Disclaimer:  What I personally suggest, do, or write about is this blog should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  This is my journal of trading and mine alone.  Every investor or trader must do his or her own due diligence, and exercise his or her own persistence, discipline and experience before taking any position in the financial markets.)

That said, I am personally going to wait for fear to begin to subside before taking any position in the sector but the time will come and likely it will be soon.

(Click chart for a larger image)

TWEET TAN FEAR AND GREED2015-07-01_1254