…it is almost scary.
But it is what it is. I guess the Fed came to save the day…with higher interest rates no less.
With a low above a low on the NYMO after five weeks of highs below highs, it appears bears have one more day (tomorrow) to make their presence felt but after that, if the NYSI up, it will be rocket time again. In other words, new highs across the board someday soon (tomorrow, Friday, next week) and probably then some more…
Also, a nice little divergence there on my nifty-50 stock list from 42 sells in February to 38 four days ago (there are 39 on buys now). Last time had a similar divergence was at the bottom in November.
(right click on chart for a larger view)
Historically speaking, the US dollar goes to hell under Republican administrations. Does anyone actually expect it to be any different this time?
May take a while since Janet Yellen’s term has year or so to go and apparently the Federal Reserve is now determined to hike interest rates. But eventually, the businessmen now running government (who of course are totally unaware that the government is not a business) will want to debase the currency.
There is the belief that a weaker dollar enables American companies to more easily compete against competitors around the world. Maybe so. But every time I look up while the dollar is down, it is the competitors buying US companies instead of buying their products.
Oh, well, this Bud’s for you.
(right click on the chart for a larger view)
The question for REM, the iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF, is it at a triple-bottom support or on a pause in an obvious down trend before a plummet into oblivion?
But the real question may be — is the technically over-sold condition in REM a sign that all the bad news from the Federal Reserve’s upcoming anticipated interest-rate hike already in the stock? Hard to tell, it is already down eight percent for the year. That may be enough.
The stock, which closed today at $9.91, has a yearly range from $12.69 to $9.76.
The triple-bottom at $9.76 is only a possibility since it always takes a confirming rally to complete the technical formation. That clearly has not happened…yet.
Almost needless to say, the ETF’s current 14.83 yield (as of Oct 31, according to Yahoo Finance) is compelling.
And, at this point the good news for traders, and for long-term investors who refuse to look at red ink each day no matter what the yield, is the stop loss, if the down trend is bound to continue, is nearby. Quite frankly I, for one, do not want to be here if this possible triple-bottom at 9.75 gets taken out (after all this could also be, technically speaking, a massive descending triangle with lots of downside left…gulp!).
(click on image for a larger chart)